Peter Flom wrote:
> More complex answer: The definition of a confidence interval is (from
> The Cambridge Dictionay of Statistics, by B.S. Everitt)
> "A range of values, calculated from the sample observations, that are
> believed, with a particular probablity, to contain the true parameter
> value. A 95% CI, for example, implies that were the estimation process
> repeated again and again, then 95% of the calculated intervals would be
> expected to contain the true parameter value. Note that the stated
> probablity level refers to properties of the interval and not to the
> parameter itself, which is not considered a random variable....."
And this is wrong. The probability level refers to the method of
generating the interval, not to the interval generated.
A valid (if, perhaps, not optimal) 95% CI method may generate an
interval that is known to contain the true parameter value, or one that
is known to have missed.
-Robert Dawson
.
.
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