Hello, all,

I am using Stepwise multiple linear regression. The model has 5
independent variables, and number of sample is 210.
I found the following suggestion today.

************************************************************************
Stepwise regression is used in the exploratory phase of research or
for purposes of pure prediction,, not theory testing. In the theory
testing stage the researcher should base selection of the variables
and their order on theory, not on a computer algorithm. Menard (1995:
54) writes, "there appears to be general agreement that the use of
computer-controlled stepwise procedures to select variables is
inappropriate for theory testing because it capitalizes on random
variations in the data and produces results that tend to be
idosyncratic and difficult to replicate in any sample other than the
sample in which they were originally obtained." Likewise, the nominal
.05 significance level used at each step in stepwise regression is
subject to inflation, such that the real significance level by the
last step may be much worse, even below .50, dramatically increasing
the chances of Type I errors. See Draper, N.R., Guttman, I. & Lapczak,
L. (1979). For this reason, Fox (1991: 18) strongly recommends any
stepwise model be subjected to cross-validation.
*************************************************************************

I know cross-validation is useful for neural network. I am not sure I
have to use it in MLR, because my linear model need "overfitting" for
all samples.  I donot like cross validation, maybe the main reason is
that I have not software do it. So I wonder if you can give me a
excuse so that I do not need cross validation. In practice, is it
popular method that stepwise model is subjected to cross-validation?


thank you very much.

Bin
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