First, thanks for explaining the data!  That makes sensible responses
possible.

But I am not sure what you can do statistically.  While you know that
the 71% who said they voted is much higher than the 51% who actually
voted, both numbers have problems.  The 51% is, I believe, of REGISTERED
voters, which includes only adult US citizens who bothered to register
at some point, and excludes different classes of people in different
states (e.g. exconvicts can vote in some states, but not others). 

The 71% is of people is of people who a) had phones and b) answered the
question.  While most people in the US do have phones, I'd bet there's a
correlation between NOT having a phone and income, and I know there's a
correlation between income and voting.  There are also correlations
between ANSWERING the phone and income, and so on.

These issues are very complex, I doubt there is a simple solution....

HTH

Peter


Peter L. Flom, PhD
Assistant Director, Statistics and Data Analysis Core
Center for Drug Use and HIV Research
National Development and Research Institutes
71 W. 23rd St
www.peterflom.com
New York, NY 10010
(212) 845-4485 (voice)
(917) 438-0894 (fax)



>>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 4/13/2004 9:32:25 AM >>>
I have to explain my data before I can ask my question.  I have survey
data on volunteering.  The data were collected using an RDD
methodology.  The data suffer from two problems -- non-response bias
(people opting out of the survey) and response bias (people giving the
socially accetpable answer).  I can't tell the degree to which either
impacts my estimations, but I know they do.  In addition to answering
questions about volunteering, the respondents were also asked if they
voted in the last presidential election (the data were collected in
the spring of 2001, not long after the election of 2000).  Seventy
percent (70%) of the respondents said they voted, which is much higher
than the 51% who actually voted.  I don't know if my higher voting
rate is a non-response bias or a response bias, just that it's too
high.  I also know that 44% said they volunteered.  With me so far?

What I want to do is adjust the volunteering rate to correct for the
known bias.  There is support in the literature for adusting a sample
to known population parameters, something that is done frequently when
a sample is adjusted to fit paramters such as gender, age, race, etc.,
but I can find nothing that talks about using an embedded question
proportion to adjust another proportion.  In other words, I want to
adjust the sample so that 51% are voters, thereby gaining a more
accurate estimation of the percentage who are volunteers.  Still with
me?

I can do a simple ratio adjustment (51 is to 70 as X is to 44), but
that doesn't take into account the fact that some people are more
likely to be volunteers than are others.  I've been struggling with
logistic regression as an approach to this, but without success.  Does
anyone have any suggestions on how I can approach this?

Thanks,

Chris

Chris Toppe, Ph.D.
Director, Philanthropic Studies
Independent Sector
[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
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