In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Chandra Ramanathan <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>I have a statistics-related question: > >Success rate of a compound reaching the market as a drug: 0.93% >Compound failure rate - not reaching the market: 99.07% > >How may compounds a company should pursue so that with a 95% >confidence interval we can say that a company's compound will >definitely reach the market? This isn't a statistics question. It's a probability question. You don't want a "confidence interval". You want a probability - ie, How may compounds a company should pursue so that the probability is at least 95% that at least one of the company's compounds will reach the market? The answer then depends on what assumptions you make. It's not hard if you assume independence. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Radford M. Neal [EMAIL PROTECTED] Dept. of Statistics and Dept. of Computer Science [EMAIL PROTECTED] University of Toronto http://www.cs.utoronto.ca/~radford ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
