No matter how many they pursue, you can never say they will DEFINITELY reach the market; you can only show the relationship between number of 'pursuits' and the probability of reaching a market.
If every compound has the same success rate, and all of these are independent, then this is a binomial function - typing functions into e-mail is often not illuminating, but any statistics text should have such a formula, and most software can calculate it for you But, without context, it's impossible to say whether the assumptions above are met. HTH Peter >>> [EMAIL PROTECTED] 4/13/2004 9:45:52 AM >>> I have a statistics-related question: Success rate of a compound reaching the market as a drug: 0.93% Compound failure rate - not reaching the market: 99.07% How may compounds a company should pursue so that with a 95% confidence interval we can say that a company's compound will definitely reach the market? There are only two outcomes for a compound: Either reaching the market as a drug or failing in experimental studies and the project being suspended. Thanks in advance for your help. Best regards, Chandra . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . ================================================================= Peter L. Flom, PhD Assistant Director, Statistics and Data Analysis Core Center for Drug Use and HIV Research National Development and Research Institutes 71 W. 23rd St www.peterflom.com New York, NY 10010 (212) 845-4485 (voice) (917) 438-0894 (fax) . . ================================================================= Instructions for joining and leaving this list, remarks about the problem of INAPPROPRIATE MESSAGES, and archives are available at: . http://jse.stat.ncsu.edu/ . =================================================================
