I have very little doubt that the next sunspot cycle will be pretty
weak. The long term trend has been pretty obvious in general. However,
it seems erroneous that they would predict a delay in the start when the
first (albeit weak) sunspot of Cycle 25 (opposite polarity) has just
recently been spotted.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/04/12/it-appears-solar-cycle-25-has-begun-solar-cyle-24-one-of-the-shortest-and-weakest-ever/
http://www.stce.be/node/359
And I've seen no scientific analysis at all that says there won't be
some sort of maximum at all. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center
even expects a solar maximum roughly the same as for Cycle 24.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/What%20Happened%20to%20Those%20Sunspots.pdf
Who knows what the actual story will be (I certainly don't), but I'm
going to place a CQ article fairly far down my list of credible sources.
73,
Dave AB7E
On 10/9/2018 10:37 AM, Dauer, Edward wrote:
For those who do not take CQ magazine, there is an article this month very much
worth reading. It summarizes recent findings about the forthcoming sunspot
cycle and its effect on propagation. To quote from the reported studies, “ .
. . the start of Cycle 25 could be delayed to 2021 or 2022 and will be very
weak, if it even happens at all . . . . this (Cycle 24) could be the last
solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades . . . .” Guess I’d better gear up
for FT8.
I personally cannot assess the quality of the research nor its full
implications. Just thought I would alert others who may be interested to the
article.
Ted, KN1CBR
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