Firstly, I think that Duverger's theory is wrong and that it certainly doesn't deserve the status of "law". His theory states that a first-past-the-post election system leads to a two-party system. It is wrong because there are counter examples. I conclude that there is some other explanation for the stability of two-party systems.
I suggest instead that two party systems, in functioning democratic systems where the government is elected though single winner elections, are stabilised by a tendency for people to decide that they either support or oppose the government. Those that don’t support the government, in seeking to defeat the government, "support" the most powerful opposition. This is therefore a simple polarising effect that needs no reference to plurality as the voting method. By "support" I don't simply refer to how votes are cast, but to how people discuss and then persuade each other, and to the alloting of resources by the rich and powerful. But the question remains: Why have the British continued to elect three distinct parties? (whatever the reasons for the stability of two-party systems) I am a long way from Britain, and I am afraid I don’t know, but I have some thoughts. The British Labour party seems to represent a wide political spectrum that includes the centre. The Tories have lost the moderate right to Labour (this seems quite clear). Are the Liberal Democrats surviving because the far left feels completely abandoned by Labour? The far left, although abandoned by Labour, could never support the middle and far right Tories, and so they have no choice but to support a third party. Can someone comment: Has British Labour been unpalatable to the far left for all of the last eighty years? Could part of the answer to the original question be that in Britain, there is very strong diversity from one district to another? A very inhomogeneous distribution could be giving the House of Commons a PR-like character. Anthony --- Alex Small <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Long time no post. I'm wrapping up the writing on my dissertation, > but I couldn't resist jumping in to post on the British election. > > The Liberal Democrats are putting in their strongest showing since > the 1920's. What's interesting from the non-partisan standpoint of > this list is that Britain uses plurality voting from single-member > districts, and yet the LibDems got 22% of the popular vote at last > count and approximately 9% of the seats. The usual rule of thumb > is that plurality voting from single-member districts encourages > the formation of a 2-party system. That's certainly the case in > the US, both nationally and in the 50 states (which can be seen as > 50 different units to compare). > > The appeal of the LibDems is even more surprising when you consider > that it's a parliamentary system. The stakes in a legislative race > are even higher, so at first glance I would think that there's even > more of an incentive to vote for one of the 2 major parties. > Finally, while most of the other parties in the British Parliament > are regional/ethnic parties representing Wales, Northern Ireland, > and Scotland, the LibDems are more about issues and ideology rather > than ethnic/regional identity. > > Now, it may be tempting to explain these results solely in terms of > current events: Tony Blair has alienated elements of the left and > center, and the Tories are such an abysmal mess that even Gray > Davis has lost respect for them. But the LibDems have persisted > despite the fact that they've been the third party in size for 80+ > years. I'm more surprised by their persistence over time than I am > by their current popularity. > > Does anybody know why Duverger's Law has been so stubbornly > resisted in Britain for 80+ years? I'd be genuinely curious to > know. > > > > Alex > > __________________________________________________ > Do You Yahoo!? > Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around > http://mail.yahoo.com > ---- > Election-methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for > list info > Find local movie times and trailers on Yahoo! Movies. http://au.movies.yahoo.com ---- Election-methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info