On Thu, 2005-08-11 at 21:54 -0400, Warren Smith wrote: > To a certain extent RL's whole argument at the start of this email could > be said to be "I prefer methods that are hard to understand because then > others will not undestand them either and everybody will just give up > on trying to find the best strategy and hence will (as a last resort) > just be honest." If you think about that argument, I do not think you will > like it.
No, my argument is this: in a well-designed Condorcet method (e.g. Schulze), there's not a "better than sincere" strategy that isn't: * Dangerous * Confusing * Easily countered if the other side catches on I think your studies show that instituting a Condorcet method means that the accompanying education effort should be vigorous. It means warning people, "hey, if you try any funny stuff, you're likely to get burnt". But part of what makes democracy is that people learn enough to govern themselves as part of the process. An example of this was the 2000 election. Nader voters arguably made a strategic error, allowing Bush to beat Gore. However, Nader didn't do so well in 2004. There were obviously other factors involved; many people knew what would happen and wanted to send a message, so the situation isn't entirely analogous, but the point is that the electorate will learn from strategic errors. > Also, voters do not need to find the best strat, all they need > is the find a strat they think likely to be as good or better than honesty. > I think in IRV that is exactly what they do do, and that is exactly why every > IRV > country is a 2-party dominated country. I think it likely that every > condorcet > country will also be a 2-party dominated country for the exact same reason. As I recall from discussions on this list, there are plenty of simulations that show that IRV elections tend to resolve to two clusters away from the political center (i.e. two-party system) thus not bucking Duverger's Law any better than plurality. The fact that this happens in the real world is not a surprise, given the theoretical results. In fact, if I recall correctly, it's been shown that IRV tends to reward more extreme candidates over time than plurality does. However, the simulations show that this doesn't happen for Condorcet methods. They tend to resolve to the center, as do Approval and Range, for that matter. I can't remember who it was that ran the numbers, but hopefully they are reading now (or someone who remembers is reading now) and will chime in with more details on this. Regardless, the fact that real-world IRV elections result in two-party systems is unconvincing evidence that the same would hold true for Condorcet methods. Rob ---- Election-methods mailing list - see http://electorama.com/em for list info