On Fri, 11 Oct 2002 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
> I'm not convinced the Drake Formula is complete. After all, presume that > there are 100 billion stars in the galaxy. I believe the numbers are up to around 400 billion at this time. > Not all of them will be positioned well. Clearly true -- the estimates of nearby GRB (or other highly energetic events) probably place some significant contraints on the development of higher life forms. The Earth may simply have been very very lucky. > That's pretty safe of him (re: 5 mi diameter telescopes), to make > an immense claim, and then present an unrealizable set of test > conditions for it. One can easily take technological progress and project it. E.g. The revolution in telescope aperture" by M. Mountain and F. Gillett Nature: V. 395: Supp: A23-A29 (1 Oct 1998). But I've done the calculations -- At 0.29% (i.e. << 1%) of the mass available to a Dyson shell civilization, they can construct 10^11 (i.e. 100 billion) telescopes with a collecting area of ~10^13 m^2 (i.e. lunar diameter) (assuming a density of 1 kg/m^2 which is quite above the limits). So you have to get this -- advanced civilizations can observe us at the level of reading license plates (or more!). We are *so* puny compared to advanced (nanotechnology enabled) civilizations that it makes no sense at all for them to bother with us. We just *might* be first -- in which case it is worth studying these problems to understand how we might deal with those who come next. *OR* we may be on the mid-point of the development spectrum in which case it might be useful to consider how we should "engage" the more evolved. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand that if we piss off a civilization a million years more advanced than we are that we are *BURNT TOAST*. Robert == You are subscribed to the Europa Icepick mailing list: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Project information and list (un)subscribe info: http://klx.com/europa/
