This is mostly a message to Larry, but it might also have
some list relevance as well.

On Thu, 27 Feb 2003, LARRY KLAES wrote:

> Of course Armageddon might resonate better with a public
> that is not very discriminatory when it comes to science
> accuracy in films - or bad acting and plotting:

I haven't reviewed the URLs (but I'd likely assume the
opinions are correct).  I believe I've seen Deep Impact
as well, but it doesn't make me cry.  I can forgive a
lot on that basis.  (More importantly millions of others
can when it comes down to making funding decisions.)

> But I heartily agree with Robert about the need to preserve
> humanity in some form beyond Earth.  With the way we are
> going now, who needs a giant space rock to destroy us.

I think we are going to muddle through so we don't need to
be quite so pessimistic.  Giant space rocks are a significant
risk (and as Gary points out some other natural hazards
though those tend to be less global).  *BUT* as the events
of 911 showed we need to imagine the unimaginable.
Only if we do that (and prepare for it) will we be
able to survive.

> Columbia tears apart in space, Pioneer 10 stops transmitting
> to Earth, and now Mister Rogers dies.  You tell me these
> aren't the signs of something bad coming (said only half
> facetiously).

Columbia was an engineering problem.  We have had those
before and we will probably have them again.  It is an
expression of "humanity" that we can explore these problems,
diagnose them and fix them.  You neglected to mention the
ending of the Galileo mission which was *very* successful
in *spite* of the failed antenna deployment (yet another
"engineering problem").

To put the Columbia problem in perspective -- On Feb. 1,
we lost 7 very fine, smart, well trained individuals.
But each and every day we lose more than 100,000 humans
to hunger, disease and aging.

Pioneer 10 most likely did not "stop transmitting".
It seems more probable that its power levels are
simply too low for our current dishes to receive.
(Obviously we need to build bigger dishes).

Mr. Rogers dug his own grave (so to speak).  Cryonics may
not work, but not-cryonics certainly doesn't (the information
on the possible feasibility and technology are available
for any who choose to explore it).  Ted's children
had the right approach -- "place a bet".  Mr. Rogers
didn't choose to (at least to my knowledge).

So the reasons for pessimism are not so large as one might
suspect.

Robert


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