“/The things that we like about EVs - the smoothness, the silence, the
instant torque, zero emissions, "refuel" at home  - just don't seem to be
all that important to most people.  Besides, in the last 20-30 years, ICEVs
have gotten better at a lot of these things./”

They sure have! Ice powered vehicles today are very reliable, quiet, and
powerful compared to a few decades ago.  If maintained properly they can
remain in service for decades and hundreds of thousands of miles.  You can
purchase a used one with 30k miles on it for less than half the new cost and
expect to drive it for at least 100k miles relatively trouble free.  That is
very hard for today’s EVs to compete with.  I don’t expect the market for
EVs to increase much until they can offer similar performance and price.

“/They shouldn't lose on cost, but most buyers don't think long-term and see
only the up-front cost./”

That is very much my experience.  Solar panels are a great example.  I live
in an area that historically has had around 200 sunny days a year.  Solar
panel cost has dropped to less than ¼ what I paid in 2008, making return on
investment very short here.  For years I’ve had people remark that I am
“lucky” that I don’t have to buy fuel, to which I respond that I just paid
up front, they could do the same.  But they look only at up-front costs, and
can’t get themselves to spend that money even though they could afford it
and the investment would pay for itself in less than 10 years.  Those same
people will purchase the most expensive new car they can afford, an
"investment" that will depreciate quickly, but that they will derive more
pleasure and status from.  I think that is a big part of Tesla's success, a
sexy, cool, high status car.  

But that is for the people who have the discretionary spending.  Most here
don't. For them its a "no-brainer" to buy that used ice car and drive it for
more than 100k miles rather than a more expensive EV that has limited range
and requires purchase of an EVSE.




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