I'll bite.

I own both a Bolt and a Model 3.  I prefer to drive the Bolt over the Model
3 when it comes to "safety".  I prefer to drive the Model 3 when it comes
to long distance driving.

I think the Bolt's sensor systems are superior to the Model 3's especially
to the rear and blind spot areas.  My Bolt tends to warn me sooner of
vehicles entering my blind spot area.  Backing out of a view blocked
parking space, my Bolt is conservative in detection.  I love the rear view
mirror camera.  The sensor systems basically inform me and let me decide
what to do.

My Model 3's software (Autopiliot) tries to be a superior "me" but I think
it fails in that it activates when it does not need to and I have
experienced "phantom" braking.  Blind spot vehicles appear on the console
just as they are off my rear fender.  All this makes me feel uneasy.  I
limit my use of Autopilot and hope they eventually adopt the GM approach or
have it as a setting such Autopilot Lite.  I think sales will take off then.

The Supercharger network and fast recharge are what are needed to spur
adoption.  I've used the Supercharger network and love it!!  I don't have
to take out any cards to recharge.  I open the recharge port and attach the
Supercharger cable and it automatically starts to recharge.  It tells me
how long it's going to take and at what rate it is recharging.  The
stations are plentiful and cover nearing all of the USA to the point of
being within 100 to 150 miles of a station in almost all areas of the
country.

The Bolt takes about 4 hours (based on screen from a Chevy dealer's Level 3
charger) to top off its 60 kwhr pack while the Model 3's is much faster.

I understand that Tesla is building a network across North Dakota and
southern Canada.  This leaves just a few areas without a Supercharge
station accessible within 150 mile such as SW Kansas, SE Oregon, and a few
other places.  In those cases, Tesla has an adapter package where you can
plug into a 240 volt outlet at an RV campground and recharge at 25 miles
per hour.  If I plan to go cross country, I'll be doing it in a Model 3.

I will worry about the longevity of Tesla when:
1)  one of the established car companies comes out with their own
Supercharger network and has similar recharge times.
2)  their "software over the air" update system gets hacked and there is no
recourse.
3)  Supercharger sites, which are leased, are not renewed by the
land/business owner. (Warsaw NC Supercharge site - hotel thought it would
increase their business.  It didn't.  However, Tesla established another
one not too far away.)
5)  Autopilot continues to be quirky while other companies develop
systems/sensor packages that work with the driver to increase his or her
safety (and that of others).

If the stock price of Tesla should fall, I suspect one of the auto
companies will buy them out.  There's a lot of good tech there and the
Model 3 is a wonderful and fun car to drive.  Slap on their company badge
and take advantage of not having to develop their own version.

Bottom line: I don't see Tesla vanishing into oblivion.  Replacement parts
may become from third party companies or refurbishers.



On Thu, May 23, 2019 at 11:25 AM Damon Henry via EV <ev@lists.evdl.org>
wrote:

> I'm a big Tesla fan and they have been mentioned in a couple of the recent
> ongoing threads quite a bit.  Personally I do not see how they can last.  I
> will be surprised if they are still in business in 5 years.  Their business
> model seems to be try to build enough hype to keep drawing in investors and
> don't worry about the fact that we are losing hundreds of millions of
> dollars a quarter year after year.  The Model 3 bump gave them a couple of
> quarters of profits and now they are right back where they started and
> likely worse.
>
> I wonder what happens to the software updates and supercharger network
> when they are gone...
>
> They have sold a lot of really great cars and forever changed the
> automotive marketplace.  I just don't see how they can last as a company.
>
> If they do fail, there will surely be Tesla DIY internet resources that
> dwarf anything the EVDL has ever been 🙂
>
> Damon
>
>
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