I read somewhere that Toyota may have been reacting to the US
government's 1990's forward looking "Partnership for a New Generation of
Vehicles" program which included only domestic auto manufacturers and
was showing results toward 80mpg - and when PNGV was subsequently
cancelled by Bush Jr. (at the behest of those same domestic auto
manufacturers), that gave Toyota an opportunity with its independent R&D
to eventually hit a home run with the Prius.
Being the clear winner in hybrid tech, it wouldn't be unusual or
unexpected to want to protect a successful market. Waves of disruption
don't usually come from those benefiting from and clinging to fading
moats (with some exceptions). But eventually a buggy whip market share
will fall, along with companies who fail to disrupt and reinvent
themselves toward a more successful future.
Public companies are no less threatened by lack of vision than family
managed companies. GM did go bankrupt, for example. We all bailed them
out. And Chrysler was swallowed up.
Toyota has plenty of experience with EV tech but they need to evolve
their business model. Hope they pull it off, and soon.
On 5/19/23 4:14 AM, EV List Lackey via EV wrote:
On 19 May 2023 at 0:00, Lawrence Rhodes via EV wrote:
They seem to want to go bankrupt.
Toyota is like Fiat (at least used to be) - wedded to the ICE. At top
management level, they seem to despise the very idea of true EVs.
I'm obvously not an insider, but I suspect that Toyota developed their
original hybrid design not as a way to prepare for an EV future, but as a
way to fend off EVs and support ICEVs.
Stellantis is in the EU, where sales of new private ICEVs have been banned
by law from 2035. If they want to continue to compete, Stellantis have
little choice but to develop and sell EVs.
Toyata is in (duh) Japan, and they have an enormous level of influence in
the Japanese government. That's probably why Japan's 2035 ICEV "ban" - wait
for it - prohibits the sale of "liquid fuel only" vehicles.
In other words, as Europe and China aim for true EVs, Japan is casting their
lot with Toyota-approved hybrids.
I think that in the long run, Toyota (and Honda, and Suzuki, and Mazda, and,
well, Japan overall) will regret clinging so tightly to hybrids. China is
likely to do to Japan's auto industry in the 2030s what Japan did to the
US's in the 1980s. It will darn well serve them right.
I don't think that Toyota will actually declare bankruptcy as a result, but
they're likely to become a smaller, less prosperous company.
David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey
To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it. Use my
offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt
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