On 11/11/2013 4:29 PM, LizR wrote:
On 12 November 2013 13:03, meekerdb <meeke...@verizon.net <mailto:meeke...@verizon.net>>
wrote:
On 11/11/2013 3:39 PM, LizR wrote:
On 12 November 2013 09:37, meekerdb <meeke...@verizon.net
<mailto:meeke...@verizon.net>> wrote:
On 11/11/2013 11:21 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:
You find you every day, according to you, every day should not happen,
only
being 10¹⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰⁰ is likely, it's just non-sense,
your
life is not random sampled, yesterday happen before today and before
tomorrow.
That doesn't make today less likely than tomorrow.
Sure, but it makes the interval (0,75) less likely than the interval
(75, inf).
Unless you're Billy Pilgrim from "Slaughterhouse 5" this argument doesn't
make
sense, beause you are forced to sample your days in ascending order.
But what does that have to do with the probabilities? A "sample" is when I
ask
myself, how probable is it that my age is what it is today. I don't have
to do this
everyday. In fact I'm very unlikely to have done it before age 4. So I
don't see
why sequence is determinative. ISTM is only implies that tomorrow will be
less
likely than today (since I may not ask tomorrow; possibly because I'm dead).
Sequence is determinative because that's how the universe works. Tomorrow, and tomorrow,
and tomorrow, creeps in this petty pace from day to day, to the last syllable of
recorded time. That's the second law doing its thing, and unless you've got very good
reason to think otherwise, you shouldn't be surprised that it is. All we're saying is
that you should be unsurprised to find yourself living your life in ascending order. You
have to pass through your current age at some point, unless you die first, and you
should expect to do so before you reach a greater age. If at your current age you ask
how probable it is that you are your current age, the answer is 1. If you're quantum
immortal then you will have the same probability every time you ask yourself that
question into the indefinite future. You are always 100% likely to be your present age!
Suppose you're Benjamin Button. For him would it be OK to say it's
surprising I'm
only 75?
I don't know anything about Benjamin Button.
Benjamin Button lived his life in reverse.
So I'll ask you the same thing I asked Quentin, what's you inference from the fact you,
and every body you've ever heard of died before reaching age 150?
Brent
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