From: everything-list@googlegroups.com
[mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of spudboy...@aol.com
extinction rate is already 10,000 times the average background rate;
>>Chris, this is an artificial rate, as useless, except to Greens, as events
cause extinctions, not averages.
Spudboy - or whatever your real name is; perhaps you don't realize it but
everything is caused by events - so that is a meaningless statement. Every
year, since the dawn of life on earth species have been going extinct and
species have been coming into existence. Perhaps you are not aware of just
how many species of life exist on this planet. There is nothing artificial,
nor unusual about graphing the rate of extinction over time. all manner of
phenomena are graphed over a time axis. That you find this strange and even
more seem to be implying that it is some kind of trick by evil greens really
makes me question your most basic understanding of math and statistics.
>>It's akin to saying of we added all the average dick lengths on Earth,
it'd reach 2/3rds to the Moon. An interesting topic, but unhelpful.
Wrong! The rate of extinction - which is the number of species going extinct
in a given unit of time can be graphed so that we can compare past rates
with the current rate - which is 10,000 times what the rate has been on
average (as far as we can tell from studying the geologic, fossil and DNA
records)
That you see no value in having a yardstick seems more likely due to the
ideological blinders you have covered your eyes with than with anything
else. It is either that or you are surprisingly ignorant of some very basic
math. I recommend you learn more about statistics and how it works before
making silly declarations like you just did.
>>Estimates of resources magically increase when money is involved. The
shale gas that was paltry in the US 10 years ago is now something the Greens
scream about, and Obama fears, (that's ideology for you).
Again you do not know what you are talking about. you are sadly misinformed.
I could argue it with you, but I do not even think you could understand the
evidence given your poor display of understanding of basic statistics.. So
why bother. Suffice to say that the Shale gas and oil plays, besides doing
great and irreparable harm to our earth are in fact just bubbles that will
soon burst (and in fact already show signs of doing just that) - it is all
spin, PR and BS, pulling in all that sucker money - the essence of any
bubble. The insiders are making huge killings no doubt, and they are
probably already pulling their money now if they have not already. The
drillers made a killing for a few years, some people made good salaries,
again for a while.
But if anyone - who understands numbers and statistics (which I fear may
exclude you) - carefully examines certain key metrics such as rates od
decline; how many years of peak well production before the decline sets in;
capital cost per unit of product; energy return on energy invested (EROI) -
for all the formations, but especially for the most mature formation - the
Eagle-Ford in Texas. What one will discover - if one looks and I do
challenge you to look - is that the boom is unsustainable and that after
investing huge numbers of billions of dollars in what are capital sinkholes
that the long term payback for that capital will never occur, because the
assumptions for fracked gas and shale oil were exceedingly optimistic -
based on historic production data from traditional gas & oil fields. Fracked
fields begin going into depletion very rapidly - and wells need to be
re-fracked as well (which changes the economics considerably) And when
decline sets in the rate of decline is much higher than it is for
traditional fields.
Again I challenge anyone to look for themselves. Recently there is growing
evidence that there is a building pullback in the capital expenditure - at
the upstream end of the project pipelines - so it takes years to play out.
The return on capital expenditures or in finance jargon CAPEX - in terms of
the market value of the produced product versus how much capital
expenditures were needed in order to develop, refine and deliver the product
are really very bad, and in general has been rapidly falling for all energy
CAPEX as a rule. again you can look these things up.
So say whatever BS you have been fed to say - hey it's a free country right?
LOL - but the real world hard numbers tell a very different story from the
politically useful fantasy you have been sold.
>>Its just that the Atlantic plays that Petrobas was counting on, were nuked
by US shale gas and oil development.
You really have no idea do you. Those projects are at the extreme edge of
what is technically possible - the deep water field off of Brazil is under 2
km of water then another 5 km of salt rock if I recall. And at great expense
they have drilled some wells and the results have been shall we say
disappointing - they are getting some oil. One well I believe is producing
about 100,000 barrels a day - not bad, but overall when one looks at the
huge capital costs for these projects not all that worth it either.
>>If money drives everything, and technology follows, the world becomes more
cognitive.
You really believe money drives everything? That physical limits imposed on
by reality don't matter? You are seriously mistaken - and over the next
fifty years if you survive you will find out just how wrong you were.
As Matt Ridley noted, once you have a bit of goodies in the world, human
perception of pollution changes. All of a sudden, tigers and orangutans,
clean air and water, star to matter. Maslow's hierarchy of needs becomes
apparent. Am I saying that pereception controls physical reality? No. But it
effects the way we choose things.
Sure. and that is the essence of policy now - it is all about perception
management, but that does not make it good policy. For a while smoke and
mirrors works and people are so easily distracted and forget so quickly. But
at some point - perhaps triggered by some black swan event - systemic
collapse sets in and quite suddenly everything falls apart. A system can
operate in lean mode for quite a while perhaps, but eventually there are no
replacements or available real capital - as opposed to purely imaginary
digital units of wealth, which is what the world's financial system has
transformed into - with all the rings of derivatives and the derivatives of
the derivatives packaged up in opaque mysterious financial instruments and
traded.
Also, the road not taken, in energy, in space, has been effected by ROI. The
ROI that I speak of, is not what is decided by you and I, who are
spacekateers, but the worlds' rich, who access power and influence it. Feel
like weeping now? Last, don't switch off the dirty, environmentally
devastating, until we've got clean at hand, producing Terawatts of
electricity on a 7 x 24 basis. But this is not for you and I too decide,
Chris, but the super rich ;-)
Well perhaps for now at least the super wealthy (or is it the NSA) can
mismanage the Titanic. but, who knows one fine day they may swing from
lampposts; it has happened before to inbred elites who have terribly
mismanaged the states they have misruled, I for one, see no reason why
history should play out differently this time.
Chris
.
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