>>If only we all thought like you, the world would be fixed, eh? Or, if the >>climate change doesn't fit all the models, that have been proposed by the >>IPCC, then all we have to do is wait?
Come on spudboy – or whatever your real name is – do you really believe your own emotional outburst? It’s a managed “free” country and you are free to utter whatever nonsense you choose. Go ahead an believe the world is flat for all I care; or that some bearded Duck Dynasty looking Patriarch sitting on a cloud in the sky made the Universe in six days some 6000 years ago. If you want to be an idiot – go right ahead. But when you utter idiocy you should expect it to be challenged and – even brutally deconstructed. If you can’t take it then don’t dish it out, is my advice. If this emotional outburst, is the extent of your reply, it is clear you have nothing of substance to say in response to my point by point deconstruction of all the silly sound bites you have swallowed hook line and sinker from your Tea Party (Koch brother funded) sources. Grow up buddy. Chris From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com <mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com?> ] On Behalf Of spudboy...@aol.com extinction rate is already 10,000 times the average background rate; >>Chris, this is an artificial rate, as useless, except to Greens, as events >>cause extinctions, not averages. Spudboy – or whatever your real name is; perhaps you don’t realize it but everything is caused by events – so that is a meaningless statement. Every year, since the dawn of life on earth species have been going extinct and species have been coming into existence. Perhaps you are not aware of just how many species of life exist on this planet. There is nothing artificial, nor unusual about graphing the rate of extinction over time… all manner of phenomena are graphed over a time axis. That you find this strange and even more seem to be implying that it is some kind of trick by evil greens really makes me question your most basic understanding of math and statistics. >>It's akin to saying of we added all the average dick lengths on Earth, it'd >>reach 2/3rds to the Moon. An interesting topic, but unhelpful. Wrong! The rate of extinction – which is the number of species going extinct in a given unit of time can be graphed so that we can compare past rates with the current rate – which is 10,000 times what the rate has been on average (as far as we can tell from studying the geologic, fossil and DNA records) That you see no value in having a yardstick seems more likely due to the ideological blinders you have covered your eyes with than with anything else. It is either that or you are surprisingly ignorant of some very basic math. I recommend you learn more about statistics and how it works before making silly declarations like you just did. >>Estimates of resources magically increase when money is involved. The shale >>gas that was paltry in the US 10 years ago is now something the Greens scream >>about, and Obama fears, (that's ideology for you). Again you do not know what you are talking about… you are sadly misinformed. I could argue it with you, but I do not even think you could understand the evidence given your poor display of understanding of basic statistics…. So why bother. Suffice to say that the Shale gas and oil plays, besides doing great and irreparable harm to our earth are in fact just bubbles that will soon burst (and in fact already show signs of doing just that) – it is all spin, PR and BS, pulling in all that sucker money – the essence of any bubble. The insiders are making huge killings no doubt, and they are probably already pulling their money now if they have not already. The drillers made a killing for a few years, some people made good salaries, again for a while. But if anyone – who understands numbers and statistics (which I fear may exclude you) – carefully examines certain key metrics such as rates od decline; how many years of peak well production before the decline sets in; capital cost per unit of product; energy return on energy invested (EROI) – for all the formations, but especially for the most mature formation – the Eagle-Ford in Texas. What one will discover – if one looks and I do challenge you to look – is that the boom is unsustainable and that after investing huge numbers of billions of dollars in what are capital sinkholes that the long term payback for that capital will never occur, because the assumptions for fracked gas and shale oil were exceedingly optimistic – based on historic production data from traditional gas & oil fields. Fracked fields begin going into depletion very rapidly – and wells need to be re-fracked as well (which changes the economics considerably) And when decline sets in the rate of decline is much higher than it is for traditional fields. Again I challenge anyone to look for themselves. Recently there is growing evidence that there is a building pullback in the capital expenditure – at the upstream end of the project pipelines – so it takes years to play out. The return on capital expenditures or in finance jargon CAPEX – in terms of the market value of the produced product versus how much capital expenditures were needed in order to develop, refine and deliver the product are really very bad, and in general has been rapidly falling for all energy CAPEX as a rule… again you can look these things up. So say whatever BS you have been fed to say – hey it’s a free country right? LOL – but the real world hard numbers tell a very different story from the politically useful fantasy you have been sold. >>Its just that the Atlantic plays that Petrobas was counting on, were nuked by >>US shale gas and oil development. You really have no idea do you. Those projects are at the extreme edge of what is technically possible – the deep water field off of Brazil is under 2 km of water then another 5 km of salt rock if I recall. And at great expense they have drilled some wells and the results have been shall we say disappointing – they are getting some oil. One well I believe is producing about 100,000 barrels a day – not bad, but overall when one looks at the huge capital costs for these projects not all that worth it either. >>If money drives everything, and technology follows, the world becomes more >>cognitive. You really believe money drives everything? That physical limits imposed on by reality don’t matter? You are seriously mistaken – and over the next fifty years if you survive you will find out just how wrong you were. As Matt Ridley noted, once you have a bit of goodies in the world, human perception of pollution changes. All of a sudden, tigers and orangutans, clean air and water, star to matter. Maslow's hierarchy of needs becomes apparent. Am I saying that pereception controls physical reality? No. But it effects the way we choose things. Sure… and that is the essence of policy now – it is all about perception management, but that does not make it good policy. For a while smoke and mirrors works and people are so easily distracted and forget so quickly. But at some point – perhaps triggered by some black swan event – systemic collapse sets in and quite suddenly everything falls apart. A system can operate in lean mode for quite a while perhaps, but eventually there are no replacements or available real capital – as opposed to purely imaginary digital units of wealth, which is what the world’s financial system has transformed into – with all the rings of derivatives and the derivatives of the derivatives packaged up in opaque mysterious financial instruments and traded. Also, the road not taken, in energy, in space, has been effected by ROI. The ROI that I speak of, is not what is decided by you and I, who are spacekateers, but the worlds' rich, who access power and influence it. Feel like weeping now? Last, don't switch off the dirty, environmentally devastating, until we've got clean at hand, producing Terawatts of electricity on a 7 x 24 basis. But this is not for you and I too decide, Chris, but the super rich ;-) Well perhaps for now at least the super wealthy (or is it the NSA) can mismanage the Titanic… but, who knows one fine day they may swing from lampposts; it has happened before to inbred elites who have terribly mismanaged the states they have misruled, I for one, see no reason why history should play out differently this time. Chris . -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
