Sent from AOL Mobile Mail

In addition to not being the energy future we all wanted, here, to my mind, is 
the next likely step, by price, by technology, in energy. I don't completely 
trust the author, but his summary is thorough. The author links this source 
even, to co2 remmediation. In a way, its like having George Jetsons' flying 
fliver, powered by gasoline, rather then atoms or photons. The article also 
presages the shale gas revolution, to being something very long in the process 
(decades), to this source. Seeing how 98% of us were paying attention other 
things, it came as a surprise to the vast majority. This will as well.

http://m.weeklystandard.com/articles/next-shale-revolution_821866.html?page=3


From: 'Chris de Morsella' via Everything List <everything-list@googlegroups.com>
To: everything-list <everything-list@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Thu, Dec 25, 2014 01:37 AM
Subject: RE: Natural gas: The fracking fallacy



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  <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal"><span 
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"> 
</span></p>
  <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal"><span 
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"> 
</span></p>
  <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal"><b><span 
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"">From:</span></b><span
 style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif""> <a 
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>
 [<a 
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com?";>mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>]
 
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, December 24, 2014 9:10 PM
<b>To:</b> <a 
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: Natural gas: The fracking fallacy</span></p>
  <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal"> </p>
  <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal">

Sent from AOL Mobile Mail</p>
  <div>
   <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal"> </p>
  
  

   <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt">It could be just 
as you suggest, a chemical, toxic, nightmare, to be footed by the tax payers. 
But I am thinking not so much, as the chemicals used have been around for 
decades, with no great problem detected. Notice how cheaper the gasoline is 
now? Notice how russia, iran, and the saudi economy has been upended? The idea 
is a civilization completely powered by the sun. The real is fracking. But we 
can always hope.<span style="color:#1F497D"></span></p>
   <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span 
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">In 
energy matters I prefer to look at five year moving averages for understanding 
price trends; doing so helps eliminate the noise of volatility in the market. 
</span></p>
   <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span 
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Most 
of the independent drilling companies that dominate US shale production sell 
futures contracts to show lenders they have locked in an oil price that is 
higher than their cost of production. This is especially true for the many 
independent smaller operators; if they can’t hedge above their cost of 
production, they are dead in the water. The US shale play needs a sustained 
minimum of above $90 on the world oil futures markets in order to be able to 
sell these hedges and use them as the basis on which they can get new capital 
to continue drilling.</span></p>
   <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span 
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">There 
are trillions of dollars of future hedge contracts most of which were 
underwritten by big money center banks whose models did not account for this 
global market plunge. Big money center banks are feeling quite exposed now and 
if this price slump lasts longer than a year they could be in very serious 
trouble again, in a repeat of 2007-2008 when the housing derivatives market 
collapsed. Estimates put the six largest “too big to fail” banks commodity 
derivatives contracts holdings around $3.9 trillion, a majority of which is 
comprised of various flavors of oil future hedges. Most of the drillers in the 
tight oil sector in the US have already locked in future prices for next year 
and up into 2016 at around $90 per barrel. For example, Noble Energy and Devon 
Energy have both hedged over three-quarters of their output for 2015, and 
Pioneer Natural Resources has options covering 67% of its likely production 
through 2016. </span></p>
   <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span 
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">These 
drillers have locked in price volatility protection for themselves (as long as 
the banks honor their losses), but what about the big banks themselves? If 
global oil spot price stagnates for much longer and these contracts start 
coming due the losses are going to be astronomical. Who will endup covering 
these losses? </span></p>
   <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span 
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">Interesting
 side note: Harold Hamm, the Oklahoma oil billionaire (heavily invested in the 
Bakken) has bet a big chunk of his fortune that oil prices will rise soon; 
cashing in on almost 40 million barrels worth of future hedges, reaping a 
current profit of over $433 million for this quarter, but exposing his firm to 
price volatility if oil spot prices should stagnate or even decline further. 
</span></p>
   <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span 
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">-Chris</span></p>
   <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span 
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"> 
</span></p>
   <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt">


-----Original Message-----
From: 'Chris de Morsella' via Everything List <<a target="_blank" 
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>>
To: everything-list <<a target="_blank" 
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>>
Sent: Wed, Dec 24, 2014 03:31 PM
Subject: Re: Natural gas: The fracking fallacy

</p>
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style="font-family:"Courier New";color:black"> </span></p>
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          <span style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">
           <hr size="1" width="100%" align="center"></span>
         
         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><b><span 
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black">From:</span></b><span
 style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black"> 
spudboy100 via Everything List <<a target="_blank" 
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>>
<b>To:</b> <a target="_blank" 
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>
 
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, December 24, 2014 12:22 PM
<b id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3429">Subject:</b> Re: 
Natural gas: The fracking fallacy</span><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"></span></p>
        </div>
        <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3383">
         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
         <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915">
          <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3382">
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3416">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">>>It could be a bubble 
but its not. Nothing has paid off like shale gas. Nothing else in the world has 
paid off like this.  </span></p>
           </div>
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3416">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
           </div>
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3416">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">Wait till the taxpayer 
gets dumped on with all those underwater derivatives the big money center banks 
have just made sure we are liable for. You have no idea of the mountain of debt 
that is about to avalanche down on the US financial system. </span></p>
           </div>
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3416">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
           </div>
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3416">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
           </div>
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3416">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">Even a report I saw 
today on energy policy encouraged more expansion into solar so that it will 
acquire 10% of the US electricity market. If this is correct, then solar will 
be marginal unless there's a vast improvement in production and storage, like 
we all hoped for. It's like all the wonders dreamed of over the last several 
decades keep fading into the future, further and further. Probably solar or 
fusion will never be marginal, this century, and the next energy source after 
shale will be methane hydrates, and we all know what the fear of AGW is focused 
on, as well as Siberia.  I guess we play the hand we're dealt, even though its 
not what we wanted. </span></p>
           </div>
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3415">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">  </span></p>
           </div>
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3414">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">Ho Ho Ho </span></p>
           </div>
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3381">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">Merry Scrooge Day 
</span></p>
           </div>
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3413">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">  </span></p>
           </div>
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3412">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">and be in all the 
earlier tomorrow! </span></p>
           </div>
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3430">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">  </span></p>
           </div>
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3386">
            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">  </span></p>
           </div>
           

            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
           
           <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yqt43139">
            <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3388">
             <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span 
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black">-----Original
 Message----- 
From: 'Chris de Morsella' via Everything List <<a target="_blank" 
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>>
 
To: everything-list <<a target="_blank" 
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>>
 
Sent: Wed, Dec 24, 2014 2:36 pm 
Subject: Re: Natural gas: The fracking fallacy </span></p>
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id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915AOLMsgPart_1_7623cdd5-33d1-4fa0-a659-4af9cfb1cfa2">
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                   <div class="aolmail_MsoNormal" align="center" 
style="text-align:center;background:white">
                    <span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">
                     <hr size="1" width="100%" align="center"></span>
                   </div>
                   <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><b><span 
style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black">From:</span></b><span
 style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black"> John 
Clark <<a target="_blank" 
href="mailto:johnkcl...@gmail.com";>johnkcl...@gmail.com</a>>
<b>To:</b> <a target="_blank" 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3705" 
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>
 
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, December 24, 2014 10:53 AM
<b id="aolmail_aolmail_yui_3_16_0_1_1419450793616_3709">Subject:</b> Re: 
Natural gas: The fracking fallacy</span><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"></span></p>
                  </div>
                  <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5353">
                   <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                   <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915">
                    <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5352">
                     <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5351">
                      <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">On Wed, Dec 24, 2014 
'Chris de Morsella' via Everything List <<a target="_blank" 
href="mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com";>everything-list@googlegroups.com</a>>
 wrote: </span></p>
                      <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5350">
                       <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5349">
                        <blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid 
#CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in">
                         <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5402">
                          <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5401">
                           <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5400">
                            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> 
</span><span style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">> the 
very same EIA that got it so wrong with the Monterey shale deposit reserve 
projections it made in 2011 </span></p>
                           </div>
                          </div>
                         </div>
                        </blockquote>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5405">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5383">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">>>Yes they got it 
wrong with Monterey, estimating reserves isn't easy and is more a art than a 
science, but given that as far as anybody knows they got it right with the 
Bakken and Eagle Ford formation and they alone account for 70% of reserves so 
it's not a major consideration. Could they be wrong again? Sure. Could you also 
be wrong about reserves? No way! </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5383">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5383">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">Wrong!. Utterly wrong 
in fact, the Bakken did not account for 70% of the reserve picture presented by 
the EIA between 2011 and the middle of 2014 when they finally downgraded the 
Monterey shale reserve projections. The Monterey reserves as stated by the EIA 
in their very highly visible projections they made in 2011 accounted for well 
over 60% of the TOTAL tight oil reserves in the USA INCLUDING the Bakken, 
Marcelus and Eagle Ford formations. In other words the Bakken, the Marcelus and 
the Eagle Ford lumped together accounted for less than 40% of the reserve 
figures touted by the EIA AND used to blow up this massive bubble that is no 
bursting. The Monterey shale was the big daddy of them all, according to the 
EIA. This announcement was highly cited by the boosters of this bubble in order 
to whip up the mania of "The US becoming the Saudi Arabia of shale". Only after 
the hoopla had served its intended purpose (convincing investors that this was 
absolutely huge) were these non-existent reserves quietly downgraded -- in a 
non media event "quiet" announcement -- and by a whopping 94%! </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5383">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">


</span></p>
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">> The EIA, IMO, is 
complicit in this fraud. And as evidence I produced the grossly overstated 
reserve numbers it produced for the Monterey shale deposits in 2011 </span></p>
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5368">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">>>If you don't like 
the way they do it please describe the far superior method that you have 
developed for estimating how much oil and gas in the ground can be economically 
extracted.  I'm all ears. </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5368">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5368">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">I am not the one 
calling myself "The Energy Information Agency of the United States of America" 
now am I. You give me the same monetary, human, legal and political resources 
as the EIA and in five years I will give you numbers. Deal? </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5368">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5394">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid 
#CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in" 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5398">
                         <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5397">
                          <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5396">
                           <div style="margin-bottom:12.0pt" 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5395">
                            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> > I am describing a 
huge financial bubble, </span></p>
                           </div>
                          </div>
                         </div>
                        </blockquote>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5348">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">>>The first financial 
bubble in the history of the planet that went down not up. </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5348">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5348">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">You really don't get 
bubbles do you? Bubbles go down when they blow up silly man. When the housing 
bubble blew to pieces in 2007-2008 did housing prices continue to rise? The 
shale play already has gone up John - it has sucked in trillions of dollars and 
made the insiders billions of dollars. What the hell do you think HAS BEEN 
happening during the past four years? </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5348">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">This mania is now 
bursting. </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5348">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5348">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid 
#CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in" 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5359">
                         <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5358">
                          <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5357">
                           <div style="margin-bottom:12.0pt" 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_5356">
                            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">> tied to tight oil 
sector energy derivatives that is bursting as we speak, yes. </span></p>
                           </div>
                          </div>
                         </div>
                        </blockquote>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_6836">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">>>Since the value of a 
energy derivative is a function of the value of the oil (or gas) in the ground, 
and since the value of a barrel of oil is less than half what it was just a few 
years ago then of course the value of those energy derivatives are going to go 
down too. But you need to put your money where your mouth is, you think the 
drop in the cost of oil is a very temporary thing, therefore you should be 
buying those energy derivatives as fast as you can.  And you should be buying 
them on margin to give yourself leverage, of course if you're wrong then the 
leverage works against you but I'm sure there is no possibility you're wrong. 
</span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_6836">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_6836">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">You should not be 
giving others free advice John.  </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_6836">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9383">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">  </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid 
#CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in" 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9387">
                         <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9386">
                          <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9385">
                           <div style="margin-bottom:12.0pt" 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9384">
                            <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">> I am describing this 
investment and perception mania that was manufactured on promises of endless 
supplies of new shale deposits. </span></p>
                           </div>
                          </div>
                         </div>
                        </blockquote>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9388">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">>>Bullshit, nobody 
promised endless supplies of anything. </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9388">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9388">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">Bullshit -- read the 
press releases and the perception management that flooded the media and was 
produced by think tank after think tank tied to these interests. The shale boom 
was very much presented as being able to supply the US with a secure and almost 
inexhaustible supply of fossil energy for a period of four or more decades. I 
argued with some of these boosters during the ramp up to this buble in 
2009-2011 -- to hear them tell it the Bakken formation extended down all the 
way to China -- I jest, but that is the essence of their position. This boom 
has been sold as being able to secure America's energy needs for many decades 
and in fact it was supposed to turn America into a major supplier of gas and 
even oil to the the EU for example. </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9388">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid 
#CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in" 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9401">
                         <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9400">
                          <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9399">
                           <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9398">
                            <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9397">
                             <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9396">
                              <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9395">
                               <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9394">
                                <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9393">
                                 <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9392">
                                  <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9391">
                                   <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9390">
                                    <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9389">
                                     <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">You do not seem to 
grasp the concept of low cost producers being able to put the squeeze on the 
high cost producers </span></p>
                                    </div>
                                   </div>
                                  </div>
                                 </div>
                                </div>
                               </div>
                              </div>
                             </div>
                            </div>
                           </div>
                          </div>
                         </div>
                        </blockquote>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_9402">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">>>It's only right and 
just that low cost producers put high cost producers of oil or of anything else 
out of business, so if OPEC wishes to keep the shale people out of the oil 
business they're going to have to keep their production high enough that oil 
costs less than what the shale people cam make it for. Currently it costs 
between $95 and $30 to produce a barrel of oil from shale depending on the 
particulars of the geology, and as technology improves the cost will go down. 
That explains why $147 for a barrel of oil as it was at its peak in 2008 is not 
sustainable however much OPEC may wish it were, and Saudi Arabia will run out 
of oil before the USA runs out of shale.  </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">You have bought into 
the line presented by the cornucopean press releases hook line and sinker. 
SHale oil does not cost $30 a barrel to produce. To pretend that this is the 
low end of the typical cost curve is akin to pretending that smoking crack is 
not damaging for your health. Given the very high depletion rate and the need 
to "re-frack" existing wells within just a few years because the fracking 
induced micro fractures tend to seal up quite rapidly -- even with all those 
injected poppants --  a massive number (and massively expensive) of drilling 
and fracking operations need to be sustained. This has proven unsustainable -- 
and in fact the major oil companies of the world agree with me, and have been 
getting out of the tight oil sector. </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">Sure there is some oil 
and gas in those shale formations, but not nearly as much as the grossly 
unreliable EIA has been reporting. It is getting that kerogen and gas out of 
the rock that is hard to do. You try squeezing oil out of rock. It is not easy 
AND it is not cheap either.  </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">Saudi Arabia IS the 
world's low cost producer. The Saudi's CAN afford this price war -- for the 
time being at least -- the US tight oil sector CANNOT. Oil at under $60 is 
driving them bankrupt. </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">-Chris </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                        </div>
                        <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10845">
                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">
  </span></p>
                         

                          <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                         
                         <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yqtfd18849">
                          <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                         </div>
                        </div>
                        <div id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yqtfd49964">
                         <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_12780">
                          <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">  John K Clark 
</span></p>
                         </div>
                         <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_10844">
                          <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">





</span></p>
                         </div>
                         <div 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_15049">
                          <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"> </span></p>
                         </div>
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#CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in" 
id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_15048">
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id="aolmail_aolmail_yiv3673053915yui_3_16_0_1_1419387329436_15035">
                                       <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">


  </span></p>
                                      </div>
                                     </div>
                                     <blockquote 
style="border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 
6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-right:0in;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
                                      

                                       <div>
                                        <div>
                                         <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="background:white"><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"><img border="0" 
id="aolmail__x0000_i1027" 
src="https://ssl.gstatic.com/ui/v1/icons/mail/images/cleardot.gif";></span></p>
                                        
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                                     </blockquote>
                                     

                                      <p class="aolmail_MsoNormal" 
style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span 
style="font-size:13.5pt;font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black">




</span><span 
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"></span></p>
                                     
                                    </div>
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style="margin-top:3.75pt;margin-bottom:3.75pt">
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style="mso-line-height-alt:.75pt;background:#E5E5E5"><span 
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style="width:1.75in;background:black;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;height:4.5pt"><p 
class="aolmail_MsoNormal" align="center" 
style="text-align:center;mso-line-height-alt:4.5pt"><a target="_blank" 
href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/27/us-opec-meeting-idUSKCN0JA0O320141127";><span
 style="text-decoration:none"><img border="0" width="78" height="51" 
id="aolmail__x0000_i1028" alt="image" 
src="http://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20141127&t=2&i=995125998&w=130&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&r=LYNXNPEAAQ0QR";></span></a></p></td>
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style="font-size:10.0pt">VIENNA (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia blocked calls on 
Thursday from poorer members of the OPEC oil exporter group for production cuts 
to arrest a slide in global prices,...</span> </p>
                                            
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style="font-size:1.0pt"><a target="_blank" 
href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/27/us-opec-meeting-idUSKCN0JA0O320141127";><span
 style="font-size:7.0pt;color:#999999">View on </span></a><b><a target="_blank" 
href="http://www.reuters.com";>www.reuters.com</a></b></span> </p>
                                          
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