On 7/1/2019 1:41 PM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:


Le lun. 1 juil. 2019 à 22:35, 'Brent Meeker' via Everything List <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> a écrit :



    On 7/1/2019 12:18 PM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:


    Le lun. 1 juil. 2019 à 20:01, 'Brent Meeker' via Everything List
    <[email protected]
    <mailto:[email protected]>> a écrit :



        On 7/1/2019 5:16 AM, Quentin Anciaux wrote:


        Le lun. 1 juil. 2019 à 13:35, Bruce Kellett
        <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> a écrit :

            On Mon, Jul 1, 2019 at 5:32 PM Quentin Anciaux
            <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:

                Le lun. 1 juil. 2019 à 09:19, Bruce Kellett
                <[email protected]
                <mailto:[email protected]>> a écrit :

                    On Mon, Jul 1, 2019 at 5:11 PM Quentin Anciaux
                    <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>>
                    wrote:

                        Le lun. 1 juil. 2019 à 07:02, 'Brent Meeker'
                        via Everything List
                        <[email protected]
                        <mailto:[email protected]>> a
                        écrit :

                            On 6/30/2019 11:48 AM, Bruno Marchal wrote:
                            >> On 28 Jun 2019, at 22:31, 'Brent
                            Meeker' via Everything List
                            <[email protected]
                            <mailto:[email protected]>>
                            wrote:
                            >>
                            >>
                            >>
                            >> On 6/28/2019 8:06 AM, Bruno Marchal
                            wrote:
                            >>> Quentin is right on this, we cannot
                            sample a random “observer moment” (cf
                            ASSA, Absolute Self-Sampling Assumption)
                            without taking the structure of that set
                            into account. With Mechanism, we can use
                            only a Relative SSA, both intuitively
                            and formally, by incompleteness which
                            distinguish between provable(p) and
                            “provable(p) & consistent”.
                            >> The structure Quentin cited is ordering.
                            > Good insight, but very natural for
                            being supported by computations, which
                            can be typically seen as growing trees.
                            It is the state of knowledge of some
                            subject, and this fit well with its
                            S4Grz logic, which provides an
                            Intuionist logic for the subject, often
                            having semantics in term of order, or
                            partial order.
                            >
                            >
                            >
                            >> But how does that force RSSA in my
                            example of taking a journey, which is
                            also ordered?
                            > It is the whole bayesian idea which
                            does not make sense. I state of
                            consciousness cannot be sampled on all
                            states, the probabilities are related to
                            histories/computations, with a relative
                            measure conditioned by some mental state
                            (of a Löbian machine in arithmetic to do
                            the math).
                            >
                            > Nothing is obvious here. That is why I
                            “interview” the (Löbian) universal
                            machine, like PA and ZF. Both agrees,
                            the traditional nuance brought by the
                            neoplatonic on truth are differentiated
                            due to incompleteness, and the
                            probabilities are on the sigma_1 true
                            propositions structured by the
                            provability logics and the intensional
                            variants given by those definitions.
                            >
                            > Also, how do you know that we are we
                            not already very old? Perhaps even more
                            so if the Big-bang admits a long
                            preceding history, like branes wandering
                            before colliding … (not that I believe
                            in Brane or string except in arithmetic
                            and Number theory). But that is
                            irrelevant, because the self-sample is
                            not on all the moments, but more on the
                            consistent histories, structure by the
                            laws of computer science/arithmetic, …

                            So what?  If QI is true then there are
                            infinitely long consistent
                            histories. Are you saying that the
                            measure is just the number of
                            consistent histories, independent of
                            their length?...a measure likely to
                            be dominated by fetuses.


                        The problem with your argument is it rely on
                        the "fact" that we should only *ever* really
                        live one moment and to expect to be in that
                        moment (either old or fetuses or whatever
                        doesn't matter)... But life is not a single
                        moment, it is a succession of ordered
                        moments... so your argument is absurd. You
                        don't come into existence into a random
                        "moment".


                    But you spend more 'time' living between the
                    ages of 40 and 90 than you do between the ages
                    of 1 and 20!


                And so what ? you have to have been 20 to be then
                between 40 and 90... your moments are successive
                *and not picked up at random*.


            That does not address the point that I made -- there are
            more moments between 40 and 90 than between 1 and 20, so
            you spend more time in your mature years. Pick a time at
            random, you are likely to be mature. Your points about
            ordering and succession are completely irrelevant to the
            main point being made.


        Again *we don't pick our life moment at random*... I'm
        living *every day, every second* of my life, there is no
        wonder to live your life, if your theory is that every human
        should be between 40 and 90, because they have more moments
        between 40 and 90 than between 1 and 20, it's absurd... and
        false.

        Actually it's true that there are more humans between 40 and
        90 than between 1 and 20.  But that's what you would call
        ASSA. The original point was about one's personal experience
        and why is it not, with high probability, about being very,
        very old compared to those around you?



    Because the premise of the question implies there is an absolute
    probability associated to every moment or range of moments, that
    premise is non sensical. Life is a succession of ordered moment,
    like a program is a succession of ordered steps, it's not
    meaningful to ask the absolute probability of step n of program
    x. To be at step N you had to do every previous step.

    You can't seem to draw any conclusions from your theory, except
    that other theories are wrong.  So I guess I'll have to try to
    guess what you think your theory implies.  For example, it implies
    that the whatever the probability of finding yourself at age X,
    the probability of finding yourself at age X-1 is greater. Right?


You can't put absolute probability on a moment, it makes no sense. So no, it's not right. The only right absolute probability for any given moment is zero.

That would be assuming that moments of experience have zero duration, which I wouldn't assume.  But I'm fine with a contiuum model too.   So you conclude that the probability density is monotonic decreasing...which would be true along any classical time line.  But quantum immortality depends on it never decreasing to zero.  So you're just saying it has a finite measure along a given classical history?

Brent

It's meaningless, life is a *succession* of moment like a program, you can't have n+1 without n. It's absurd to say as there us more steps after n that you should be at a step n+y disregarding that you *had* to do all the previous steps before.


    Brent
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