'Hillary Clinton's campaign has a secret weapon to build itsdelegate
count, but her top strategists say privately that anyattempt to deploy it would
require a sharp (and by no meansinevitable) shift in the political climate
within Democratic circlesby the end of this month.
With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party's 30-member Rulesand Bylaws
Committee committed
to Clinton, her backers could -- when the committee meets at theend of this
month -- try to ram through a decision to seat thedisputed 210-member Florida
and 156-member Michigan delegations. Sucha decision would give Clinton an
estimated 55 or more delegates thanObama, according to Clinton campaign
operatives. The Obama campaignhas declined to give an estimate.
Using the Rules and Bylaws Committee to force the seating of two
pro-Hillary delegations would provoke a massive outcry from Obama
forces. Such a strategy would, additionally, face at least two other
major hurdles, and could only be attempted, according to sources in
the Clinton camp, under specific circumstances:
First, this coming Tuesday, Clinton would have to win Indiana and
lose North Carolina by a very small margin - or better yet, win the
Tar Heel state. She would also have to demonstrate continued strength
in the contests before May 31.
Second, and equally important, her argument that she is a better
general election candidate than Obama -- that he has major weaknesses
which have only been recently revealed -- would have to rapidly gain
traction, not only within the media, where she has experienced some
success, but within the broad activist ranks of the Democratic Party.
Under that optimistic scenario, some Clinton operatives believe
she could overcome several massive stumbling blocks:
-- Clinton loyalists on the Rules Committee would have to be
persuaded to put their political futures on the line by defying major
party constituencies, especially black leaders backing Barack Obama.
Committee members are unlikely to take such a step unless they are
convinced that Clinton has a strong chance of winning the nomination.
Former DNC and South Carolina Democratic Party chair Donald Fowler
-- a Hillary loyalist -- would, for example, face an outpouring of
anger from South Carolina Democrats if he were to go along with such
a strategy.
-- A controversial decision to seat the two delegations, as
currently constituted, would be appealed by the Obama campaign to the
Democratic National Convention's Credentials Committee.
The full make-up of the Credentials Committee will not be
determined until all the primaries are completed, but the pattern of
Clinton and Obama victories so far clearly suggests that Obama
delegates on that committee will outnumber Clinton delegates. Obama
will not, however, have a majority, according to most estimates, and
the balance of power will be held by delegates appointed by DNC chair
Howard Dean.
For the scenario to work, then, Dean would have to be convinced of
Clinton's superior viability in the general election, and that she
has a strong chance of defeating McCain next November.
One of the arguments the Clinton campaign is privately making to
autonomous "super" or "automatic" delegates, as
well as to delegates technically "pledged" to Obama as a
result of primary and caucus results, is that the campaign shifted
dramatically in roughly mid-February. At that point, Clinton
supporters contend, the economy replaced Iraq as the dominant issue
among primary voters, and that transition led to Clinton's successes
in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania.
Clinton people also make the case that the past six weeks have
seen examples of Obama's political vulnerabilities: his wife's "proud
to be an American" remarks, the emergence of the Rev. Jeremiah
Wright controversy, wider coverage of Obama's ties to 1960s radicals
Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn, "bittergate," the flag pin
imbroglio, and "hand on the heart" accusations -- all
impugning Obama's patriotism.
* * *
The controversy over Michigan and Florida grows out of thedecision of both
states to flout national party rules prohibiting allbut a few states -- Iowa,
New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina --from holding primaries or caucuses
before February 5, 2008. Michiganheld its primary on January 15 and Florida on
January 29.
On December 1, 2007, well before the contests were held, the Rules
and Bylaws Committee voted to refuse to seat either state's
delegation at the August 2008 convention in Denver.
When the contests were actually held, none of the candidates
actively campaigned in either state. In Michigan, Obama had his name
taken off the ballot. Clinton "won" both contests.
The Obama campaign contends that the primaries in the two states
were not legitimate, especially in Michigan where voters could not
cast a ballot for Obama. Clinton "won" the Michigan contest
with 55 percent, while 40 percent voted "uncommitted" and
the remainder went to minor candidates.
Obama manager David Plouffe has argued that the only way to seat
the Michigan delegation would be to divide the delegates evenly
between Clinton and Obama: "A 50-50 split would be fair."
Many Democrats, including DNC chair Howard Dean, believe it is
critically important to reach some kind of compromise to seat the
Michigan and Florida delegations in order not to alienate voters in
the two battleground states, each of which could be pivotal in the
November general election.
In the case of Florida, there are a number of proposals under
consideration. One would be to seat the delegation as is, but give
each delegate only one half a vote. Another would be to cut the
number of Florida delegates in half.
Spokesmen for the Obama campaign declined to discuss their
strategies for dealing with the May 31 Rules and Bylaws Committee
meeting, or to speculate on what they think the Clinton forces with
try to do.
By Tom Edsall
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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