--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, "Rick Archer" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Takes bets on election results, etc: http://www.intrade.com/ >
here is another major political exchange (in Iowa even) http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm "Many prediction markets are open to the public. Betfair is the world's biggest prediction exchange, with around $28 billion traded in 2007. Intrade is a for-profit company with a large variety of contracts not including sports. The Iowa Electronic Markets is an academic market examining elections where positions are limited to $500. TradeSports are prediction markets for sporting events. The simExchange, Hollywood Stock Exchange, NewsFutures, the Popular Science Predictions Exchange, Hubdub and the Foresight Exchange Prediction Market are virtual prediction markets where purchases are made with virtual money. Bet2Give is a charity prediction market where real money is traded but ultimately all winnings are donated to the charity of the winner's choice." While there are some issues an problems http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction_market these prediction markets tend to be more accurate than polls -- because "investors" are betting their hard earned money. They do so only when they have done some serious homework -- at last in concept -- and much in practice it would seem from the consistently accurate results over the years. Markets are powerful tools to setting prices and probabilities. (And don't do everything -- regulation is needed when they don't "do it all")
