By WILLIAM KRISTOL
Published: November 10, 2008
Just before midnight on Nov. 4, I wasn’t that worried.
William Kristol
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Sure, the election results had been bad — but they weren’t devastating. Obama
wasn’t winning the popular vote by double-digit margins, as some polls had
suggested he might. Republican losses in the Senate and House were substantial
but not catastrophic. Obama was ahead of John McCain by about the same margin
with which Bill Clinton defeated George Bush in 1992, and he would be taking
over in January with similar Congressional majorities to Clinton’s in 1993.
Well, Newt Gingrich was able to lead a Republican takeover of Congress only two
years later. And after his victory in 1976, Jimmy Carter had even larger
Democratic margins in Congress. Ronald Reagan trounced him four years later,
bringing with him a G.O.P.-controlled Senate and an era of conservative
governance.
What’s more, this year’s exit polls suggested a partisan shift but no
ideological realignment. In 2008, self-described Democrats made up 39 percent
of the electorate and Republicans 32 percent, in contrast with a 37-37 split in
2004.
But there was virtually no change in the voters’ ideological
self-identification: in 2008, 22 percent called themselves liberal, up only
marginally from 21 percent in 2004; 34 percent were conservative, unchanged
from the last election; and 44 percent called themselves moderate, compared
with 45 percent in 2004.
In other words, this was a good Democratic year, but it is still a center-right
country. Conservatives and the Republican Party will have a real chance for a
comeback — unless the skills of the new president turn what was primarily an
anti-Bush vote into the basis for a new liberal governing era.
Those were my thoughts when, a few minutes into his victory speech, just after
midnight, Obama told his daughters, “And you have earned the new puppy that’s
coming with us to the new White House.”
I gulped.
Not out of my deep affection for dogs, fond of them though I am. But because
while we’ve all known that Obama is a very skillful politician, he hasn’t until
now been a particularly empathetic one. Competence plus warmth is a pretty
potent combination. Suddenly visions of the two great modern realigning
presidents — Franklin Roosevelt (with his Scottish terrier Fala) and Ronald
Reagan (with his Cavalier King Charles spaniel Rex) — flashed before my eyes.
Maybe a realignment could be coming.
Obama was, naturally, asked about the promised-but-not-yet-purchased puppy at
his press conference Friday. (If one were being churlish, one might say that it
was typical of a liberal to promise the dog before delivering it. A
results-oriented conservative would simply have shown up with the puppy without
the advance hype.)
Obama commented wryly that the canine question had “generated more interest on
our Web site than just about anything.” He continued:
“We have two criteria that have to be reconciled. One is that Malia is
allergic, so it has to be hypoallergenic. There are a number of breeds that are
hypoallergenic. On the other hand, our preference would be to get a shelter
dog, but, obviously, a lot of shelter dogs are mutts like me. So — so whether
we’re going to be able to balance those two things, I think, is a pressing
issue on the Obama household.”
Here, in a few sentences, Obama did the following: He deepened his bond with
every dog lover in America. He identified with every household that’s tried to
figure out what kind of dog to get. He touched every parent with a kid allergic
to pets. He showed compassion by preferring a dog from a shelter. And he
demonstrated a dry and slightly politically incorrect wit by commenting that “a
lot of shelter dogs are mutts like me.”
Not bad. It could be a tough four or eight years for conservatives.
It will be tougher yet if they underestimate Obama. His selection of Rahm
Emanuel as chief of staff suggests that Obama’s not going to be mindlessly
leftist, and that he’s going to shape a legislative strategy that is attentive
to Congressional realities while not deferring to a Congressional leadership
whose interests may not be his own. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were both
tripped up in their first two years by their Democratic Congresses. Obama
intends for Emanuel to ensure that that doesn’t happen.
And Obama has the further advantage of inheriting a recession that will give
him a very tough first year or two (for which he won’t be blamed), but that
should be followed by a recovery well timed for his re-election bid.
So Obama will be formidable. But conservatives should welcome the challenge.
It’s good for conservatism that conservatives will have to develop refreshed
ideas and regenerated political skills to succeed in the age of Obama.
And it wouldn’t hurt for Governors Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels, Bobby Jindal and
the other possible 2012 G.O.P. nominees to begin bringing some puppies home for
their kids
