--- In FairfieldLife@yahoogroups.com, grate.swan <no_re...@...> wrote: <snip>
Popper was adamant about the fallacy of induction -- that we > cannot prove anything is true -- only that we can prove things to be > false. And that new theories may replace old ones because they reveal > cases where the old theory is false -- but the new theory is not yet > true -- only not yet falsified. Popper and Taleb (Black Swan author) > really open your eyes to how much uncertainty there is in the world -- > and certainly the universe. And that the much of the world is far from > Gaussian (subject to the normal distribution) -- and thus not > "predictable" with Gaussian based statistical inference (which is 99 % > of statistics and probability theory) despite what your 3rd grade > teacher said. But nevertheless, even if you can't prove "truth" you can get enough evidence to act on, even if it is only based on probability. You can't count on the black swan. :)
