> > > > > > Are you implying such nationalities are stupid and will buy > homes 30% above prevailing market rates (if a bubble burst occurs). I thought only certain eccentric Brits were that bonkers. :) > > > > > > > Why not, we do it all the time in other countries that are poorer than us. Someone from a rich country doesn't really care if the house costs $10,000 and is only worth $7,000 to sell it again. > > > > Really! Quite shrewd investors these arab, canadian and russan > friends of yours.>>> > > Lol, your just not getting are you? They will be able to afford to > make a loss on a US home because, ubder your bubble bust theory they > will be rich compared to US, and they are not worried about 100,000 > here or there.
I suggest you are not getting it, or simply poorly informed about the housing markets in the US. First, how will foreign invesors, as a class, be richer if a global bubble occurs -- which is what what I am suggesting. Even without such, most foreign investors are just that: investors -- looking for a return. In most major markets, the fundamentals are so out of whack, the rent/mortgage rates (30-50%), and the affordability rates (15% or so) that the probability of a positive return from either rentals or selling appreciated property is fast becoming minimal. Losses, large losses, are gaining a much higher probability. If the foreign investors want to wait it out, 10 - 20 years while the markets readjust, then fine, housing may be a good long-term investment for such. But the current housing investor market is generally much shorter term. > > >> If your theorized crash occurs then that makes the US poorer > than some other countries who will be perfectly happy to buy property at the meagre prices they are seeing, wether there is a prevailing lower market rate or not. > > With prices dropping globally. They are -- from London to > Austrailia to Spain to China.>> > > > Jya...right. House prices have been dropping in China for a long > time.....jya ....right. Actually thats a direct quote from the PBS Lehr News hour tonight. There has been substantial state-financed overbuilding of upscale condos in Peiking, Shanghai and other areas, and prices -- the report said, have dropped 30% in the last couple of years. > > > In fact, this very effect will be enough to keep house prices > > rising. We live in a global economy. The nouveau rich in Russia or > > Canada will come and buy your cheap little $300,000 dollar house in Boston. I am still waiting for you to buy the portfolio of overpriced properties that I can structure for you. If you are not willing to buy, your points are just empty and uninformed idle banter. > > ------ > > > > Actually foreign investors already have been aggresive buyers in > hot markets. And some are getting / may get caught in the bubble.>>> > > > No, becuase, like any wise investor, they know it is just a bubble > and that eventually prices will start to rise again, along with > wages. Yes, wages have to go up 4 fold in order for 50% of the population to be able to afford the median priced home in major markets. That will take a while. Or prices will have to drop 30-40% And wise investors of course will try to buy at the bottom of a market, not at its peak. > > But, you being an astute investor, I will sell you a potfolio of > > overpriced homes right now and you can make a killing on it > selling it to the market you you envision. I am sure you will put > your money where your mouth is.>>> > > I am not talking about inverstors. Try reading more carefully. I am > talking about 2 things: > 1. People who have bought their house to live in it and own it > (rather than throwing 10,000 to 20,000 a year down the drain in rent > money) I thought you were talking about people who are going to buy housing at a 30% premium after the market drops such. These by definition are NOT people "who have bought their house to live in it and own it" . How many of your rich canadian, arabs and russians are planning to live and settle in their new US homes? The current market bubble has been driven by investors -- over 25%of buyers. > 2. People spending some expendable cash on a second home in the US. > There are plenty. Canada is a thriving economy not as tied to the US > as people think. And you are sugggesting that such a foreign second home in US market is large and motivated enough to buy up all of the listed homes for sale so that they do not lingering on the market with eventual price drops. So where are they? That is already happening. Days on market is already stretching out substantially, and prices are beginning to drop. > The whole point being that your bubble will not last under such > supply and demand conditions. First you suggest that sellers will be able to sell at curret prices because of all of your envisioned foreign investors wanting second homes in the US. If prices are stable there is no bubble (bursting). Now you are suggest that there may be a bubble burst, but it won't last. Agreed. It wont last. But given the current fundamentals, it unlike past cycles. It could last 10-20 years. Similar the the Japanese real estate bubble. Regardless that all cycles eventually normalize, who wants to buy at the peak? It appears you do, and given that, I can supply you with an unlimited supply of peak-priced US homes. When are you going to send your down payment? Or are you not serious that buying at the peak "astute"? > As long as there is an increasing population in an area there will > be increasing house prices. Not that it us a big advantage to > anyone , unless it is their business to buy and sell. NO. Increasing population is only one of many factors that affect price. And it has little effect when the affordability index is at such historic lows -- 15%. Mortgage rate increases (which are coming) and employment / income levels in the local market are more imprtant drivers than migration or birth rates. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Get fast access to your favorite Yahoo! Groups. 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