(Updated) Election Analysis by Jeffrey Winters (10 April 2009)
Here are some back-of-the-envelope calculations and scenarios based on early
“quick count” results from the 9 April 2009 Parliamentary DPR elections
(available as of 10 pm Jakarta time on 10 April). Final vote counts could vary
from these numbers, but most of the analysis presented would hold:
[If the five columns are formatted wrong, they should be Party; Avg 2009 %; Est
2009 Seats; 2004 %; and 2004 Seats]
Avg Est.
2009 2009 2004 2004
PARTY % Seats % Seats
----------------------------------------------------
Demokrat 20.4 141 7.5 55
Golkar 14.6 100 21.6 128
PDIP 14.2 98 18.5 109
PKS 7.6 53 7.3 45
PAN 5.7 39 6.4 53
PPP 5.3 36 8.2 58
PKB 5.2 36 10.6 52
Gerindra 4.9 34 0 0
Hanura 3.5 24 0 0
----------------------------------------------------
81.3% 560 seats
First some basic information and assumptions. Column one is an average of the 4
“quick counts” done by Lembaga Survei Indonesia, Lembaga Survei Nasional,
Lingkaran Survei Indonesia, and CIRUS Surveyors Group. Only the nine parties
listed above appear likely to reach the 2.5% popular vote threshold needed to
get even a single seat in the 560-seat DPR. These nine parties constitute 81.3%
of the total vote (which would have yielded only 455 seats without the
exclusionary rule). These nine parties will divide among themselves the
remaining 105 seats in the DPR the smaller parties would have gotten. The
numbers of seats in column two are very rough estimates, as percentages of
popular vote give only an indication of actual seats won.
As expected, no party got the 25% of the popular vote needed to run a
presidential candidate, although, also as expected, SBY’s PD is the only party
to get the 20% of the DPR seats (112) needed to run a candidate solo.
Alliances for the Presidency
SBY is likely to ally with PKS and PKB (neither is likely to ally with
PDIP-Mega or Gerindra-Prabowo). This would give SBY a comfortable 230-seat
base. Barring something dramatic happening with Golkar (see below), SBY might
even offer PKS the vice-presidency.
The current strategy is for PDIP-Mega to ally with Golkar-Kalla. This would
give Mega an easy 198 seats as a base for her run with Kalla once again as VP
(and promises of a dominant role in domestic affairs). But if there is major
Golkar drama (see below), Mega would have to find another ally.
The big question is whether there will be a third candidate. Gerindra-Prabowo
must assemble 112 seats to run. If the alliances mentioned above hold, then
there are only 132 seats left for grabs. Gerindra will get around 34. This is
quite a splash for a one-year old party, but Prabowo needed to do a lot better.
To get to 112 seats Prabowo must somehow get PAN (39) and PPP (36) and Hanura
(24) to back him. PAN and PPP lean toward SBY but could be lured away
(especially if money and several cabinet posts are offered). But the huge
challenge is getting Hanura-Wiranto to sign on. There is a history of deep
conflict between these two generals. Unless the final vote counts and seats
work in Prabowo’s favor, he will only have 108 of the 112 needed to run without
Wiranto. So getting Wiranto becomes a must.
Golkar Drama
As expected, Golkar’s performance was poor, dropping from 21.6 percent of the
vote in 2004 to a pathetic 14.6 percent this round (a third of the party’s
voter base lost). Golkar is chock full of figures plotting to re-take the party
if the elections were to go badly under Kalla’s leadership. The top plotter is
Akbar Tanjung, who wants to hold an Extraordinary National Convention
(Munaslub) in May to push Kalla aside for failing the party. Nothing major
happens in Golkar without tons of money, and Akbar doesn’t have much. But
replacing Kalla would be a major boon to SBY, as it would pave the way for
re-allying with Golkar-Akbar (with Akbar as the VP). This would devastate SBY’s
opponents and cause a cascade effect in the alliance structure. Mega’s alliance
with Golkar-Kalla would be history. Her search for a replacement ally to reach
the 112-seat threshold could threaten to eliminate Prabowo from the
presidential race. SBY could easily raise
the funds needed to back Abkar’s putsch within Golkar. Doing so would all but
assure SBY’s second term.
Rizal Ramli and One Last Scenario
There is one other interesting possibility that could arise, though the chances
are remote. Rizal Ramli is the only non-New Order figure of prominence in the
race. Problem is, he has no party. Instead, he heads the “Change Blok,” which
is made up of many of the parties (nearly 18% of the total vote collectively)
that are cut out of the action because they did not reach the 2.5% threshold.
Rizal cannot get 20% of the seats with this hodge- podge of parties because
they get no seats. But a candidate can still run for the presidency with 25% of
the popular vote. This is a tall order. Rizal would have to get all the
excluded parties plus one or two of the parties that did reach the threshold to
join together.
Alternatively, Prabowo and his allies could ally with Rizal and his Change Blok
and reach the 25% popular vote threshold. The same holds true for Wiranto and
his Hanura party. These popular-vote scenarios assume the more than two dozen
fractional parties could be held together and not be picked off using money by
the big players. Prabowo has the money to fend off such money challenges from
Mega and SBY, but Rizal does not.
Jeffrey Winters
Northwestern University, Chicago
April 10, 2009
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