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Belinda,
Thank you for the excellent article.
We could absolutely use simulation science and evolutionary computation
(SSEC) to, as the article states, "recommended measures to strengthen
international and national controls to prevent natural resources from
financing warring factions."
Simulation would also be useful for testing out "suggested steps to
reduce domestic conflicts over access to natural wealth, including
'responsible, just and economically productive resource management' by
African governments, with 'equitable distribution of wealth to all
stakeholders, in particular local communities.'
My wife is from Angola. We just watched The Last King of Scotland.
Africa and the world is in dire need of simulation science to improve
decision making. I am keen to help -- but policymakers are not keen to
pay for help.
I am not convinced, as the article states "that the UN, donor agencies
and other international institutions [should] provide more aid to
African countries to strengthen capacities for natural-resources
management." I don't think that more aid money is the solution.
Nor, do I feel that quick fixes ("donor agencies have been tempted to
step in directly to try to quickly overcome problems of corruption and
poor administration") will work -- quick fixes inevitably do not address
root causes, but instead, all too often, ameliorate symptoms in the
short term only to be followed by even worse situations - as
demonstrated by the Chad example in the article.
The Diamond Development Initiative and other micro-projects sound like
interesting examples that may actually work - but my intuition is very
poor in dealing with complex issues without a simulation to uncover my
assumptions.
I've done several free projects - but I've discovered that policymakers
(at least in the USA and at the UN) tend to ignore the advice that comes
from free work.
For example, we presented work completed as a pilot project by myself
and a London Business School professor and a proposal to the Director of
the Secretary-General at the UN in NYC on the use of simulation as a
tool for policy making in Sierra Leonne. No paid work resulted.
I spoke to numerous people in UNOCHA regarding the use of simulation to
improve the allocation of scarce resources to impoverished areas. No
paid work resulted.
I spoke to Senator Edwards in the USA re: the use of simulation to
address policymaking to alleviate poverty in America - there was no
interest in driving forward unless I was willing to cover all the costs
associated with the project.
I did recently connect with the Center for Strategic Health Initiatives
in Alabama and Simudyne is now doing some interesting work using
simulation to explore health care policy issues -- but these types of
visionary public-policy clients seem relatively rare.
I also know (because I helped train him) that there is at least one
visionary at the World Bank who is using simulation.
:-P
Maybe you know policy-makers who are interested in improving policy
decisions by using simulation?
Belinda, I am happy to brainstorm one-on-one via Skype or via email. I'm
over in London now -- where are you based?
- --
Best regards,
Justin Lyon
M: +423 663 168892 (Worldwide)
M: +44 781 480 2797 (London, UK)
O: +1 210 787-3498 (San Antonio, USA)
O: +44 20 8144 4072 (London, UK)
E: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
W: http://www.simudyne.com
Belinda Wong-Swanson wrote:
> Hi Justin,
>
> Thanks for the book recommendation. I came across this article today
> relating to conflicts and natural wealth in Africa - seems like a good
> problem to simulate and explore possible solutions.
>
> http://www.wbcsd.org/plugins/DocSearch/details.asp?type=DocDet&ObjectId=MjI0MzI
> <http://www.wbcsd.org/plugins/DocSearch/details.asp?type=DocDet&ObjectId=MjI0MzI>.
> "*Conflict resources: from ‘curse’ to blessing"*
>
> Belinda
>
>
> On Jan 18, 2007, at 9:17 AM, Justin Lyon wrote:
>
> Colleagues,
>
> I just finished reading the most amazing book:
>
> _Origin of Wealth: Evolution, Complexity, and the Radical Remaking of
> Economics_ by Eric D. Beinhocker
>
> For those of you that heard my speeches in the UK or in Brazil on why
> traditional economics is a pseudo-science, you will know my feelings
> about most economists (with the exception of Dr. Dante Suarez and a few
> others).
>
> It's like Eric wrote a manifesto for why we formed Simudyne. Thank you
> Eric!
>
> Get thee to a bookstore and read it if you are interested in simulation
> science (or complexity science or non-linear science or whatever we're
> calling it today).
>
> ;-P
>
> Oh, and I can also recommend _The God Delusion_ by Richard Dawkins.
>
> Have others on the list read these two books with their clear call to
> arms? What do you think of the books and their arguments?
>
>>
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