Taleb's writing style is very personal. He likes telling stories. Chapter 9 "The Ludic Fallacy"<http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/teaching%20and%20posters/MT07/LudicFallacy.pdf> contains what I would consider the essence of his message. It's fun reading--and it's online<http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/teaching%20and%20posters/MT07/LudicFallacy.pdf>.
-- Russ On Sun, Nov 16, 2008 at 6:42 AM, Phil Henshaw <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > I'd agree Taleb does not communicate his main insights consistently, and > uses fuzzy generalities that you need to "grok" to make sense of. I don't > think one needs to deal with all that to get the main point, though. > > The reasons why *statistical analysis fails for subjects of increasing > non-homogenous complexity* seems invaluable. It's a principle that might > be derived simply from any number of directions, and is an important point. > Our world is making the critical error exposed in any number of ways it > appears. > > It's also interestingly central to the complexity theory of W M Elsasser > that he developed in the 50's and 60's. He's an extraordinarily clear > thinking theoretical physicist/biologist who points to that as a gap in > statistical mechanics that needs to be considered for any attempt to model > non-homogenous systems like life. > > I even find that "strategy of the gaps" remotely similar to how Rosen > points > to why divergent sequences can't be represented in closed systems of > equations, but are clearly part of life, and so are necessary for any > attempt to model such non-homogenously developing and changing systems as > life. > > Phil Henshaw > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On > > Behalf Of Jochen Fromm > > Sent: Sunday, November 16, 2008 4:59 AM > > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > > Subject: [FRIAM] The Black Swan > > > > I am currently trying to read Taleb's "Black Swan". > > Paul and Glen mentioned it earlier a few weeks ago, > > and Russ said it has some nice points. So I read > > the first chapter and thought "well, interesting". > > Then I read the second about Yevgenia Krasnova, > > a fictional character which embodies his anger > > about publishers, and thought "what a crap". > > > > Somehow it goes on like this: it is hard to > > say if it is crap (his "Mediocristan" and > > "Extremistan" for example) or a masterpiece. > > Chapter three is better again. Many ideas > > are exhilarating, but the terms are often > > very idiosyncratic. > > > > His main topic, the "Black Swan", is less > > interesting than the many thought provoking > > ideas one can find between the lines, when Taleb > > talks about his experiences or uprising. After > > all, points where little things can make a big > > difference are not new, John H. Holland has > > called them "Lever points", Murray Gell-Mann > > "frozen accidents", and Gladwell "tipping points". > > > > Do you agree? What do you think are his most > > interesting points? I like for instance the > > paragraphs about "scalable professions": > > for Taleb it is "a profession in which you are > > not paid by the hour and thus subject to the > > limitations of the amount of labor" (p. 27). > > It is in interesting idea to apply "scalability" > > to professions and payoffs. > > > > -J. > > > > > > ============================================================ > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org > > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org >
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