Iowa Electronic Markets http://tippie.uiowa.edu/iem/index.cfm
Best formal example I know of where collective judgment is being
collected and evaluated publicly. Key to it is (IMO) the real
investment in one's opinions. In most cases (e.g. Polls) there is no
motivation to be serious rather than (sometimes) frivolous or hopeful or ...
- Steve
On 13 Oct 2010 at 16:26, Prof David West wrote:
It is a bit unfortunate that the experiment involved predicting
soccer game outcomes. I recall that there was an octupus the had
a perfect prediction record during the last world cup.
Well, as Walt Kelly had his characters point out,
once, "To be forewarned is to be forearmed, and
to be forearmed is to be half an octopus."
It would seem to follow that to be an entire
octupus is to be doubly forewarned, and that's
close enough to procognition for government work.
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FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
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============================================================
FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv
Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College
lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
