I'm pretty sure those probability terms refer to ensemble casting, where some estimation of the error in the observational data is made, as well as the interpolation between, and and an ensemble of forecasts is made with initial conditions drawn distributions from matching that estimated variability - with the probability just being the frequency of that occurance in the ensemble run.
One of my clients does this stuff for a living, and I sometimes peek over the shoulder at his work, but otherwise don't claim any expertise. -- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dr Russell Standish Phone 0425 253119 (mobile) Principal, High Performance Coders Visiting Senior Research Fellow hpco...@hpcoders.com.au Economics, Kingston University http://www.hpcoders.com.au ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
