See the Medea Hypothesis <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medea_hypothesis>vs the Gaia Hypothesis <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia_hypothesis> vs the Fermi Paradox <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox#It_is_the_nature_of_intelligent_life_to_destroy_others> (as another way to avoid/stall responding to the Climate Crisis OR the Chinese Hoax, depending on your preferred sociopolitical attractor) <tongue-in-cheek>.
On 1/1/20 12:50 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > This is the position that humanity is an infection causing the Earth > to suffer, right? > > ----------------------------------- > Frank Wimberly > > My memoir: > https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly > > My scientific publications: > https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2 > > Phone (505) 670-9918 > > On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 12:45 PM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com > <mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote: > > It seems to me the solution is to do nothing. The world has to > become relatively toxic and inhospitable. Then people will be > unable or unwilling to reproduce, the population will drop, and > the earth can heal. > ------------------------------------------------------------------------ > *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com > <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> on behalf of doug carmichael > <d...@dougcarmichael.com <mailto:d...@dougcarmichael.com>> > *Sent:* Wednesday, January 1, 2020 12:37 PM > *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > <friam@redfish.com <mailto:friam@redfish.com>> > *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions > > > Let’s say we are able to bring the price of solar generated > electricity below that of electricity generated by fossil fuels. > This leaves several important questions: > > > Who pays for replacing the gas heater with an electric heater? > That includes installation and remodeling costs as well as the > cost for the device. The energy companies will work hard to make > sure we generate that electricity with oil and gas - and more coal > than we want to acknowledge. The number of new electric heaters > that would have to be manufactured is on the order of 50-100 > million for the US, and what of half the world that still cooks > on open fires? Such manufacturing is going to produce more > pollution and use even more energy. It requires old technologies > of mining the minerals and producing the plastics that go into the > manufacturing these units, as well as their transportation from > mine to factory, and from the factory to homes. > > > doug > >> On Jan 1, 2020, at 11:26 AM, Prof David West >> <profw...@fastmail.fm <mailto:profw...@fastmail.fm>> wrote: >> >> >> forgive me, but "it is clear" implies that there is no other >> alternative. I don't believe that because I have read myriad ways >> of remediating the consequences of that use. Those alternatives >> are expensive, but more expensive than the social and economic >> consequences of ending fossil fuels? >> >> If the only solution is one that will not be utilized, do we >> simply resign ourselves to the inevitable? >> >> davew >> >> >> On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, at 8:16 PM, Douglass Carmichael wrote: >>> We are stuck at the point where, to stay under 1.5 or 2, it is >>> clear that we must cut fossil fuel extraction and use and there >>> is no existing politics todo it because it mans loss of jobs, >>> failures of mortgages, collapse of banks - and starvation. And >>> this is Implies that we must move toward powerful >>> centralization and decentralization at the same time. >>> >>> >>> doug >>> >>>> On Jan 1, 2020, at 10:55 AM, <thompnicks...@gmail.com >>>> <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> <thompnicks...@gmail.com >>>> <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> wrote: >>>> >>>> Friammers: >>>> >>>> Let’s constitute ourselves as the “climate change jury”. The >>>> jury can have a conviction but only if we all agree. Otherwise >>>> we remain a hung jury. >>>> >>>> So, does the Jury agree that with Dr. Kwok of JPL that “ … sea >>>> level rise, disappearing sea ice, melting ice sheets and other >>>> changes are happening”? >>>> >>>> If, so, is the jury prepared to convict human activities for >>>> causing those changes? >>>> >>>> I am polling the jury. >>>> >>>> Nick >>>> >>>> Nicholas Thompson >>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology >>>> Clark University >>>> thompnicks...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> >>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> *From:* Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com >>>> <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> *On Behalf Of *Frank Wimberly >>>> *Sent:* Wednesday, January 1, 2020 11:27 AM >>>> *To:* The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group >>>> <friam@redfish.com <mailto:friam@redfish.com>> >>>> *Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] climate change questions >>>> >>>> From NASA: >>>> >>>> https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/16/is-it-too-late-to-prevent-climate-change/ >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> ----------------------------------- >>>> Frank Wimberly >>>> >>>> My memoir: >>>> https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly >>>> >>>> My scientific publications: >>>> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2 >>>> >>>> Phone (505) 670-9918 >>>> >>>> On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:24 AM Frank Wimberly >>>> <wimber...@gmail.com <mailto:wimber...@gmail.com>> wrote: >>>>> What scares me is recent assertions that we have passed the >>>>> tipping point and there is nothing we can do about it. I have >>>>> no references. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Frank >>>>> >>>>> ----------------------------------- >>>>> Frank Wimberly >>>>> >>>>> My memoir: >>>>> https://www.amazon.com/author/frankwimberly >>>>> >>>>> My scientific publications: >>>>> https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Frank_Wimberly2 >>>>> >>>>> Phone (505) 670-9918 >>>>> >>>>> On Wed, Jan 1, 2020, 11:09 AM <thompnicks...@gmail.com >>>>> <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com>> wrote: >>>>>> Dave, >>>>>> >>>>>> I like these questions, and I think The Congregation should >>>>>> take them as a >>>>>> challenge. >>>>>> >>>>>> What can we-all, we who have long association, and a >>>>>> generalized (if >>>>>> somewhat guarded) respect, come to agree upon with respect to >>>>>> climate change >>>>>> and human activity? By what process, with what attitudes, by >>>>>> what rules of >>>>>> engagement, are we likely to arrive at ANY truth of that >>>>>> matter. Because, >>>>>> if we, here, cannot agree on some matters, agreement would >>>>>> seem to be beyond >>>>>> human reach. >>>>>> >>>>>> So, for starters, I find I am inclined to disagree with your >>>>>> facts as >>>>>> stated. They seem to assert that Things (whatever Things >>>>>> are) are not as >>>>>> bad as they were predicted to be. Yet, I find, I am inclined >>>>>> to believe >>>>>> that in fact Things are worse. The only specific data I feel >>>>>> I have been >>>>>> exposed to recently is ocean surface rise and glacial >>>>>> melting. But even >>>>>> there, I would be hard pressed to match your specific >>>>>> references to any of >>>>>> my own. So, I guess the conclusion is, I disagree, but I >>>>>> don't know what I >>>>>> am talking about. Ugh! >>>>>> >>>>>> I could (after some labor) cite data to support the following >>>>>> concern: what >>>>>> we should be watching out for, perhaps more than long term >>>>>> climate warming, >>>>>> is increases in year-to-year climate variability. You can >>>>>> grow rape seed in >>>>>> Canada and maize in the US, and as the climate alters, the >>>>>> bands of climate >>>>>> supporting these two crops will move north. But what happens >>>>>> if one year >>>>>> the climate demands one crop and the next the other? And the >>>>>> switch from >>>>>> one to the other is entirely unpredictable. Anybody who >>>>>> plants a garden >>>>>> knows that only two dates have a tremendous effect on the >>>>>> productivity of >>>>>> your garden: first frost and last frost. The average frost >>>>>> free period in >>>>>> my garden in Ma 135 days or so, but only a few miles away, it >>>>>> is as short as >>>>>> 90. And while we have never had a 90 day frost year, we have >>>>>> had last frost >>>>>> dates in June and first frost dates in early September. It >>>>>> would take a >>>>>> very small year-to-year increase in variability to turn my >>>>>> garden from >>>>>> something that could support life for a year in New England >>>>>> into a 30 x 50 >>>>>> wasteplot. >>>>>> >>>>>> I think I could show you that the period in which we live, >>>>>> the Holocene, is >>>>>> a period of remarkably low, year-to-year, variation in >>>>>> climate VARIABILITY. >>>>>> I think I could convince you that everything that has >>>>>> occurred in the last >>>>>> ten thousand years by way of civilization is entirely >>>>>> dependent on that >>>>>> anomalous stability. The neanderthals were not too stupid to do >>>>>> agriculture; the climate of the Pleistocene would not permit >>>>>> it. The whole >>>>>> idea of nation states depends on the idea that one can make >>>>>> more or less the >>>>>> same kind of living by staying more or less in the same place >>>>>> and doing more >>>>>> or less the same thing. A return to Pleistocene year-to-year >>>>>> variation >>>>>> would obliterate that possibility. >>>>>> >>>>>> If then, I could convince you, that --quite apart from Global >>>>>> Warming-- we >>>>>> are seeing an increase in climate variability, then, by God, >>>>>> I think I could >>>>>> scare the Living Crap out of you. >>>>>> >>>>>> The only question is whether we have the energy and >>>>>> sitzfleisch to do it, >>>>>> and some way to keep our correspondence is order so that it's >>>>>> value could be >>>>>> harvested for the long run. >>>>>> >>>>>> Happy New Year! >>>>>> >>>>>> Nick >>>>>> >>>>>> Nicholas Thompson >>>>>> Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology >>>>>> Clark University >>>>>> thompnicks...@gmail.com <mailto:thompnicks...@gmail.com> >>>>>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> -----Original Message----- >>>>>> From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com >>>>>> <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On Behalf Of Prof David West >>>>>> Sent: Wednesday, January 1, 2020 9:45 AM >>>>>> To: friam@redfish.com <mailto:friam@redfish.com> >>>>>> Subject: [FRIAM] climate change questions >>>>>> >>>>>> Questions, that do NOT, in any manner or form deny the >>>>>> reality of climate >>>>>> change. >>>>>> >>>>>> In 1990, citing the "best scientific models available" stated >>>>>> that because >>>>>> of carbon dioxide emissions, the Earth would warm by an >>>>>> average of 3 degrees >>>>>> Fahrenheit and the U.S. as the largest producer, by an >>>>>> average of 6 degrees >>>>>> Fahrenheit by 2020. >>>>>> >>>>>> The UN IPCC report of the same year predicted a range of >>>>>> temperature >>>>>> increases ranging from 1-5 degrees F, with the most likely >>>>>> expectations >>>>>> being 3-5 by the year 2020. >>>>>> >>>>>> The current report predicts a rise of 2-5 degrees by 2100. >>>>>> >>>>>> The New York Times, CNN, and the President of Exxon USA >>>>>> predicted the end of >>>>>> domestic oil and gas reserves by 2020. >>>>>> >>>>>> The undisputed rise in Earth (and US) temperature as of 2020 >>>>>> is 1 degree. >>>>>> >>>>>> Exactly how does one go about constructing a reasoned, and >>>>>> accurate, >>>>>> argument for the need to address climate change in the >>>>>> context of badly >>>>>> incorrect predictions, grounded in the best available >>>>>> scientific models, and >>>>>> over-hyped "disaster scenarios" promulgated by those with >>>>>> political or >>>>>> simply "circulation" motives. >>>>>> >>>>>> In light of this context of "error" and "hype," is it fair to >>>>>> tar everyone >>>>>> expressing questions or doubts with the same "deny-er" brush? >>>>>> >>>>>> Is it possible to constructively criticize either the models >>>>>> or the proposed >>>>>> "solutions" without being dismissed as a troglodyte "deny-er?" >>>>>> >>>>>> Is there a way to evaluate a spectrum of means (eliminating >>>>>> coal to carbon >>>>>> scrubbers to ...) along with analyses of cost/benefit ratios, >>>>>> human >>>>>> socio-economic impact, etc. and compare them? >>>>>> >>>>>> Is there more than one strategy for getting out of this mess; >>>>>> and if so, how >>>>>> do we decide (and/or construct a blend) on one that will >>>>>> optimize our >>>>>> chances? >>>>>> >>>>>> davew >>>>>> >>>>>> ============================================================ >>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to >>>>>> unsubscribe >>>>>> http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>>> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> ============================================================ >>>>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>>>>> to >>>>>> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>>>> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >>>> ============================================================ >>>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>>> to >>>> unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>>> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >>> ============================================================ >>> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >>> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >>> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >>> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >>> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >>> >> >> ============================================================ >> FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv >> Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College >> to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com >> archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >> FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove > > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove