Dave - > The COVID-19 pandemic will end, at least in the US, by mid-June, 2020. Ignoring the "bait" that I (and others) took earlier, I'll try to respond to the singular prediction above:
What means "end"? What is a specific statistic that you believe to indicate that the pandemic has ended? From Wikipedia: A *pandemic* (from Greek <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancient_Greek> πᾶν, /pan/, "all" and δῆμος, /demos/, "people") is an epidemic <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic> of disease <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disease> that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continents> or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of people. A widespread endemic <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)> disease with a stable number of infected people is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected people such as recurrences of seasonal influenza <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_influenza> are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide. The WHO published THIS description of phases of a pandemic: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK143061/ /In the //*post-pandemic*// period, influenza disease activity will have returned to levels normally seen for seasonal influenza. It is expected that the pandemic virus will behave as a seasonal influenza A virus. At this stage, it is important to maintain surveillance and update pandemic preparedness and response plans accordingly. An intensive phase of recovery and evaluation may be required./ Or maybe some other (measurable) definition? - Steve
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/