Yeah, now there’s a guy that really needs to be institutionalized for anger management issues.
Oh, wait…. Eric > On Aug 11, 2021, at 8:59 AM, Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote: > > Eric writes: > > < Look then at the distribution of multipliers in the table. For the “at > least five times” column, the first six entries, alphabetically, are 75x, > 17x, 47x, 68x, 22, 148x, 161x, and likewise for the “eight times” column. > Ahh, if the American Public would only tolerate being shown a histogram > giving the whole distribution at a glance…. Of course, if I were not lazy, I > could find and download the data and make my own histogram. > > > Well, <harumphh> if it is only five times, then what is really the POINT? > Let’s tell Rand Paul about these gross exaggerations ASAP! > > Thanks, > > Marcus > > From: Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com <mailto:friam-boun...@redfish.com>> On > Behalf Of David Eric Smith > Sent: Tuesday, August 10, 2021 4:43 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <friam@redfish.com > <mailto:friam@redfish.com>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] off-label technologies, exaptatiion and exponential > technological growth. > > I am sure it is just dieseling at this point, but I was pleased to see the > following article: > https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/10/us/covid-breakthrough-infections-vaccines.html > > <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/10/us/covid-breakthrough-infections-vaccines.html> > (I usually get to these things late; y’all probably have read it already) > > In reading the first table, on hospitalization and death fractions by > vax/unvax, I was thinking “okay, now since we have vaccinated fractions by > date, we could do a covariance plot, and of course could then do more > involved multiple regressions on dummy variables as we could find them.” (No > pun meant on “dummy variable”, though I am unable to miss it myself. Things > like measures of hospital performance, coverage of masking rules or other > public health measures, population density and gathering density, etc. Some > of these to be proxies for fraction exposed, which is hard to get at.) > > But then that is just where the article goes. It’s funny how a pair made of > a careful writer and a lazy reader can be an unhelpful combination. The text > leading to the second table says "people who were not fully vaccinated were > hospitalized with Covid-19 at least five times more often than fully > vaccinated people, according to the analysis, and they died at least eight > times more often.” I remember the nice passage in John Paulos’s book > “Innumeracy”, where (to make some point, which I now forget), he comments on > why a sign over the highway “Entering New York, Population at least 6” is not > particularly informative, though quite true. > > Look then at the distribution of multipliers in the table. For the “at least > five times” column, the first six entries, alphabetically, are 75x, 17x, 47x, > 68x, 22, 148x, 161x, and likewise for the “eight times” column. Ahh, if the > American Public would only tolerate being shown a histogram giving the whole > distribution at a glance…. Of course, if I were not lazy, I could find and > download the data and make my own histogram. > > But, credit to those authors. Within the bounds of what is permitted to > them, this is a useful data digest. > > Eric > > > > > > On Aug 8, 2021, at 10:32 PM, Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com > <mailto:wimber...@gmail.com>> wrote: > > Eric, > > Thanks very much for this! I was asked about it by some humanities friends > in Pittsburgh who were alarmed. They thought I was qualified to evaluate her > claims. You are more so. The benefits of Friam are clear. > > Tangentially, I was recruited by an insurance company to be an actuary when > I was a grad student in math based on my GRE scores. The salary promises > made me curious enough to investigate. I was deeply into the theorems of > measure theory, complex analysis, algebra, etc., which I liked and what I > gleaned from a brief investigation of actuarial science didn't excite me. > They urged me to visit them in Hartford anyway. I'm glad I didn't go. > > Again, i appreciate the time you spent on this. > > Frank > > > > > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Sun, Aug 8, 2021, 2:26 AM David Eric Smith <desm...@santafe.edu > <mailto:desm...@santafe.edu>> wrote: > Hi Frank, > > Only because Marcus responded…. > > This article > https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/08/05/covid-19-vaccines-dont-really-work-as-hoped/ > > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=https%3a%2f%2fourfiniteworld.com%2f2021%2f08%2f05%2fcovid-19-vaccines-dont-really-work-as-hoped%2f&c=E,1,PFWQCC2T8jYI-mHBLyeBP_i-WNReHBWNoy9tKr28x0BcEWDm162UkTG3O4nzCkIL9Leag2ib0iZck0UQvN9v86sW4_0xLs4vmbNe9eBNe5HDPjmTZA,,&typo=1> > Isn’t a good start. > > I didn’t read the whole thing, so I will confine my remarks to the title and > second paragraph, relative to the reported data. > > 74% of people in the P-town outbreak had been vaccinated. What does that > tell us? Very nearly nothing. This is the like the textbook question given > to any undergrad in statistics. (And remember: “She’s an actuary!” — be > ready to take her word for things.) > > There were, if I remember the number, 60k visitors to P-town. How many of > them were vaccinated? Don’t have numbers on that. Suppose 99.67% of them > were, for the sake of making a point. 800 cases (rounded out). 600 among > the vaccinated. Suppose everyone in P-town was exposed (also not reported, I > have no idea how many were). At that rate, the number of infections among > the vaccinated would be 1%. Sounds well within the range of a vaccine that > tests as 94% effective against infection. > > Suppose that only the state average of 64% were vaccinated and everyone was > exposed. Then the fraction infected becomes 1.5%. Since P-town is a > destination for the educated and rich, and known as a gay-friendly place so > probably lefter than Mass as a whole, I would be very surprised if the vax > fraction of the visitors were not above the state average. Not least because > they were going to a party. > > How many were unvaccinated among the 60k? Again, not reported, presumably > not something one is even allowed to ask about, and so probably impossible to > know with precision and not easy to estimate. But again to make a point, > suppose the number of unvaccinated was 200 ppl. Infections among the > unvaxsed: 200. Wow! That would be 100% infectivity among the unvaccinated. > > Suppose the fraction actually vaxxed was 50/50 and everybody was exposed. > Well, then, the vaccines were terrible; increased your chance of being > infected by 50%. But of course that would require that the unvaxsed were > also only catching delta at <2%, which is improbable. So presumably, if we > knew the other numbers, we could guess at about what fraction of people > actually had exposure. > > But then to use that, we need the correlation between degree of exposure and > vaccination status, and who the hell knows even what the sign of that number > would be? > > MY POINT (sorry to be so ugly all the time): we can find any interpretation > you like, from completely anodyne to totally absurd, from within feasible > ranges of other variables on which we have little or no information. > > How much drama does any of this warrant? > > Well, we were told that, what, 5 people landed in the hospital? Out of 60k > visitors plus locals. Of whom 3 had preexisting problem conditions. No > reports on whether the ones with problem conditions were vaxxed. Even in that > tiny sample, we know nothing about correlation information that would change > the direction of its implications qualitatively, from moving 1 or 2 people > between categories. > > One final thing: those positive cases are outcomes of tests. I don’t recall > seeing anything on how many were symptomatic. Could be all of them, but in > many of these cohorts that use any contact tracing, it is fewer. That’s PCR > in the nose or throat. > > So really? Is the title “the vaccines don’t work as believed on the delta > variant” warranted? > > Speaking in slightly fuller sentences, what did we “expect” from experience > with vaccines up to now? The vaccines enable the learning phase of immunity > to be done and stored, so that one may or may not have antibodies in any > given quantity (variable across people and probably usually degrades with > time; six month numbers being given a a guess at a time frame, with > considerable imprecision), but one does have whatever genetic memory there is > to activate antibody-producing cells quickly. That has been reported for > about 1/2 year in dribs and drabs, and the variance in the results gives us > an idea of roughly how much uncertainty we should have. > > So virus establishes a beachhead in the nose and throat, and rather than > taking a week and a half to figure out an immune response, during which time > it makes you much sicker, you knock it out (for most of those who do get > sick) in a few days. All this seems to me well within the range of things > that have been publicly reported. > > Zaynap Tufecki had a nice piece in the NYT a few days ago, something like CDC > should stop confusing the public. It sounds like a dramatic title, but the > content is good and sensible, and I think she mentioned part of this as well. > Let me look: > https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/04/opinion/cdc-covid-guidelines.html > <https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/04/opinion/cdc-covid-guidelines.html> > > The Crooked guys also did a nice interview with Ashish Jha from Brown, here: > https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SddFBebSk-c > <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SddFBebSk-c> > where, in addition to being asked interesting questions and given time to > give coherent answers, he was able to relax a bit and talk as if from thought > instead of from script. > > So it strikes me that, so far, we are getting small updates to how viral > attacks and immunity are relating, and a little info on distributions. None > of it seems very surprising, and the early estimates are still closer than we > have any right to hope for, given a new disease in the period of rapid > change. The fact that you can get high PCR titers in the nose of a > vaccinated person is useful to know, perhaps not predicted per se, but not > bizarre either. > > — > > I have thought, throughout the attention to these topics during the past year > and a half, that we swim in viruses all the time. We catch a cold once every > few years, and suppose that is because our exposure Is intermittent. But > I’ll bet what is going on with the ambient virosphere looks much more like > this business we are seeing with COVID than we would ever have guessed, with > the important exception that we are all naive to COVID, and not to all the > other stuff. I have wished there were time and manpower to use this > unprecedented effort at measurement, to revamp our mental pictures and > epidemiological models of how ambient viruses are moving around. It may be > that a lot of this is already known, and I am just ignorant of it (that would > be my first assumption), but I can’t imagine all this measurement doesn’t > have _something_ of a general nature that we could learn from. > > Eric > > > > > > > > On Aug 8, 2021, at 6:16 AM, Frank Wimberly <wimber...@gmail.com > <mailto:wimber...@gmail.com>> wrote: > > Gail Tverberg: does anyone have an opinion about her? Based on her career > as an actuary she writes various blog posts and articles warning of imminent > disasters related to Covid, oil prices, etc. When I search for commentaries > about her I find almost nothing except items that she has written. She is > associated with "Our Finite World". > > --- > Frank C. Wimberly > 140 Calle Ojo Feliz, > Santa Fe, NM 87505 > > 505 670-9918 > Santa Fe, NM > > On Sat, Aug 7, 2021, 1:28 PM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com > <mailto:mar...@snoutfarm.com>> wrote: > No need for victims when there are (pandemic) volunteers. > > > On Aug 7, 2021, at 11:43 AM, Steve Smith <sasm...@swcp.com > <mailto:sasm...@swcp.com>> wrote: > > Marcus - > > The pushback on everything from low wattage lighting to mask mandates leaves > me thinking that there is really only one thing that motivates certain > people: That they can do whatever the hell they want and, crucially, that > other people cannot. A living wage infringes on that ranking and so must be > terrible. What if there were physical space for everyone, food for > everyone, and many optional ways to invest one’s time? What if one didn’t > need a wage at all? What if you had to decide for yourself what was worth > doing? Heck, what if one (some post-human) didn’t even need food and didn’t > need to reproduce? > > Sounds Utopian... erh... Dystopian... no... UTOPIAN! Uhm... I just hope > posthumans collectively find the rest of us boring enough to leave alone and > interesting enough to not need to extinct us. Homo Neanderthalenses had a > long run (~.4My?) before Homo Sapiens Sapiens found our way into their > territory and apparently ran over them with our aggressive adaptivity (over a > period of tens of thousands of years). I suspect *some* trans/post humans > will also have a somewhat more virulent (or at least very short > time-constant) adaptivity indistinguishable (to us) from extermination-class > aggression. > I like the fairy tale Spike Jonze wove on this topic with HER > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Her_(film)>, and in particular the virtual > Alan Watts <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Watts> conception. But I > highly doubt we might be so lucky. More likely some version of "the Borg" > or "Cylons" or "Replicators" or (passive aggressive) "Humanoids" (minus the > gratuitous anthropomorphism). To us, it will probably look more like a > "grey goo" scenario. Or perhaps more aptly hyperspectral rainbow-goo. > At the current rate of change/acceleration/jerk in technosocial change I may > even live to see the whites of the eyes of the hypersonic train headlights I > mistook for "light at the end of the tunnel". > I'm going to go now to get my telescoping (drywall stilts) runner's legs fit > in place of the organic ones I grew (and then abused/neglected) over the past > 65 years. I'm holding out for AR corneal transplants for a few more > months, I think it will be worth the long wait for the upgraded features and > the new neural lace interface specs. > - Sieve > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fbit.ly%2fvirtualfriam&c=E,1,ToX9SHL_B1Ax8AfT6DsuRDrH1GeA3821EoHrJDVxgsrKpUyNiuUv0WVOJqCZ-U4wflyTf-g7UdCZb7l7yM5hBHx0lTJD1fG_Wq6B_k3vFpy8Jw,,&typo=1> > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2fredfish.com%2fmailman%2flistinfo%2ffriam_redfish.com&c=E,1,0BDfdnUIr69GQTWqjHdPTRPgDXNJ9daZqONk6gU5WLyx3rGtZ9_NA7Yu91odYRJnCM66Fh_AyRPOVW1lPgRpgCXBd7GBqyVLWnouCBFM&typo=1> > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <https://linkprotect.cudasvc.com/url?a=http%3a%2f%2ffriam-comic.blogspot.com%2f&c=E,1,hZAtZ-SOsCEsB5OOSrCfWKhtzkc1rItlal1EH668JK84oGXr8J1p0tquCt-uYhvQb3C4Ne57gwScJrtLp_uOO-bwpXcx4JSE6yL6YLz5&typo=1> > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> > - 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