Yes, good points. My wife and I drive an electric car because I believe it is
the future. On the small street in Berlin where I live there are 4 charging
stations now, 10 years ago there were none. European cities have a lot more
electric cars and electric buses compared to 10 years ago. In Paris for example
you only see electric buses which reduce noise and pollution a lot. We still
have a long way to go, though.It is clear that we have to start the transition
to renewable energy and a more sustainable economy *now* - and need to continue
it where it has already started - but for various reasons, including those you
mentioned, it will most likely not be possible for the 8 billion people on
Earth. Which means a collapse of civilization is no longer a bugaboo, an
imaginary object of fear, and it becomes increasingly likely we are heading
towards a collapse of civilization and a destruction of our ecosystems (either
through climate change, and insurmountable piles of nuclear and plastic waste,
or by a long period of wars, or by natural disasters). There are many reasons
why civilizations collapse.
https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300259285/amongst-the-ruins/Those who
survive the collapse will need to find a more sustainable way to live. The only
way forward which does not destroy the ecosystems we live in is to+ use
renewable energy+ avoid burning fossil-fuels+ eliminate waste by recycling+
stop consuming non-renewable resources + stop production of nuclear waste+ stop
population growthIn others words we need to respect the axioms of
sustainability if we do not want to destroy the planet we live
onhttps://www.resilience.org/stories/2007-02-05/five-axioms-sustainability/-J.
-------- Original message --------From: Prof David West <[email protected]>
Date: 6/1/25 5:28 PM (GMT+01:00) To: [email protected] Subject: Re: [FRIAM]
Limits to Growth Unfortunately, it is almost certain that there will never be
enough 'fossil fuel free power stations' to supply needed energy for electric
vehicles.Data centers, driven in large part by AI demands and cryptocurrency
will leave nothing left over.Some numbers:Three Mile Island, which is being
recommissioned to supply power to a couple of Microsoft Data Centers, has a
capacity of 7 Terawatt hours(T/w/h) per year.In 2022 data centers, globally,
consumed 460 TWh, by 2026 this is estimated to be 1,000 Twh. By 2040 projected
demand is 2,000-3,000 TWh.Crypto adds 100-150 TWh in 2022, 200-300 in 2030, and
400-600 in 2040.Nuclear is unlikely to provide more than 25% of this
demand.Between now and 2040, it will be necessary to build 100 TMI-capacity
nuclear plants to supply that 25%.If solar is to supply the other 75%, it will
require between 66,000 and 80,000 square miles of solar panels. (Don't know how
many batteries, but the number is not trivial.)Wind power, for that 75%, will
require 153,000 to 214,000 turbines, each requiring 50-60 acres of space
beneath them. (Also the problem of batteries.)It takes 10-15 years to build a
nuclear plant like TMI, have no idea now many dollars.Neither solar nor wind,
nor combined, can be installed fast enough to meet this demand and, again, have
no idea of cost.Nothing left over for cars, the lights in your home and office,
or to charge your phone: unless, of course we continue to rely on oil (shale
and fracking), natural gas, and coal.davewOn Sun, Jun 1, 2025, at 6:24 AM,
Pieter Steenekamp wrote:This is why I’m so excited about electric vehicles—I
feel like a kid waiting for Christmas! Add clean fossil fuel free power
stations into the mix, and voilà: abundant clean energy, no miracle inventions
required. Just some clever tech and a whole lot of charging cables!On Sun, 1
Jun 2025 at 12:57, Jochen Fromm <[email protected]> wrote:I believe we all
have a slighty distorted view because we were all born long after
industrialization has started and have seen nothing but growth.
Industrialization started around 200 years ago in Great Britain and spread
shortly after to America and Europe. First by exploiting coal and steam
engines, later by oil and petrol engines. Tanks, warplanes, warships as well as
normal cars, planes and ships all consume oil.Richard Heinberg writes in his
book "The End of Growth": "with the fossil fuel revolution of the past century
and a half, we have seen economic growth at a speed and scale unprecedented in
all of human history. We harnessed the energies of coal, oil, and natural gas
to build and operate cars, trucks, highways, airports, airplanes, and electric
grids - all the esential features of modern industrial society. Through the
one-time-only process of extracting and burning hundreds of millions of years
worth of chemically stored sunlight, we built what appeared (for a brief,
shining moment) to be a perpetual-growth machine. We learned to take what was
in fact an extraordinary situation for granted. It became normal [...] During
the past 150 years, expanding access to cheap and abundar fossil fuels enabled
rapid economic expansion at an average rate of about three percent per year;
economic planners began to take this situain for granted. Financial systems
internalized the expectation of growth as a promise of returns on
investments."https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/the-end-of-growth-bookHeinberg
argues the time of cheap and abundant fossil fuels has come to an end. There
1.5 billion cars in the world which consume oil and produce CO2. Resources are
depleted while pollution and population have reached all time highs. It is true
that humans are innovative and ingenious, especially in times of scarcity,
necessity and need, and we are able to find replacements for depleted
resources, but Heinberg argues in his book "Peak Everything: that "in a finite
world, the number of possible replacements is also finite". For example we were
able to replace the whale oil by petroleum, but finding a replacement for
petroleum is much
harder.https://richardheinberg.com/bookshelf/peak-everythingWithout oil no army
would move, traffic would cease, no container or cruise ship would be able to
go anywhere and therefore international trade and tourism would stop. On the
bright side no more plastic and CO2 pollution either. In his book "End of
Growth" Heinberg mentions "transition towns" as a path towards a more
sustainable society and an economy which is not based on
fossil-fuels.https://donellameadows.org/archives/rob-hopkins-my-town-in-transition/French
author Victor Hugo wrote 200 years ago that "the paradise of the rich is made
out of the hell of the poor". If rich people start to realize this and help to
find a way to a more sustainable, livable society it would be a
start.-J.-------- Original message --------From: Pieter Steenekamp
<[email protected]>Date: 5/31/25 5:46 AM (GMT+01:00)To: The Friday
Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]>Subject: Re: [FRIAM]
Limits to GrowthI’ve always loved the Simon-Ehrlich bet story—two clever guys
betting on the future of the planet. Ehrlich lost the bet, but the debate still
runs circles today.https://ourworldindata.org/simon-ehrlich-betThis article
nails it: over the long term, prices mostly go down, not up, as innovation
kicks in. We don’t "run out" of resources—we get better at using them. Scarcity
shifts, but human creativity shifts faster.The Limits to Growth folks had good
intentions, but the real limit seems to be how fast we can adapt and rethink.
And so far, we’re doing okay—messy, uneven, but okay.Turns out, betting against
human ingenuity is the real risky business.On Fri, 30 May 2025 at 21:51, steve
smith <[email protected]> wrote:REC -Very timely... I did a deep dive/revisit
(also met the seminal
work in college in the 70s) into Limits to Growth and World3
before the Stockholm workshop on Climate (and other existential
threats) Complexity Merle wrangled in 2019.... and was both
impressed and disappointed. Rockstrom and folks were located
right across the water from us where we met but to my knowledge
didn't engage... their work was very complementary but did not
feel as relevant to me then as it does now.In the following interview, I
felt he began to address many of
the things I (previously) felt were lacking in their framework
previoiusly. It was there all the time I'm sure, I just didn't
see it and I think they were not ready to talk as broadly of
implications 5 years ago as they are
now?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6_3mOgvrN4Did anyone notice the swiss
village inundated by debris and
meltwater from the glacier collapse uphill? Signs of the times
or "business as usual"?- SASOn 5/30/25 12:16 PM, Roger Critchlow
wrote:https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2025/05/20/limits-to-growth-was-right-about-overshoot-and-collapse-new-data/I
remember the Limits to Growth from my freshman year in
college. Now Hackernews links to the above in which some
people argue that we've achieved the predicted overshoot for
the business as usual scenario and the subsequent collapse
begins now. Enjoy the peak of human technological
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