Eli Lilly for GLP 1s?
*From:*Friam <[email protected]> *On Behalf Of *Steve Smith
*Sent:* Monday, November 17, 2025 10:41 AM
*To:* [email protected]
*Subject:* Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot
Com stock collapse?
I don't even know if I will send my response to this thread, I've
come to delete most of my "usual" offerings without sending, some
without finishing, others without starting. Some kind of
entropy-minimization strategy on "y'all's" side of my Markov Blanket?
Lots of rich stuff here. I don't think I disagree with any sentiment
here (can they ALL be compatible?). Tom's original (implied)
question is probably as much about "should those of us with fat ETF
portfolios switch their mix from high-performing AI-fueled to some
other place with better risk/reward ratios?" as it is about "is there
even a 'there there' in the AI cascade of new affordances and
competencies being offered (hyped) by 'the market'. But maybe they
are fundamentally the same question in this highly human-conditioned
manifold of intersubjective reality we inhabit together?
Obligatory anecdote: when a moved to my current property (2000), A
huge russian olive (50' tall, 3'diameter trunk, broad reaching
branches) hosted a huge magpie nest in one of the forking horizontal
branches... maybe 6-8' long made of branches from all over the
property (area) and many other elements. It had a half-dozen babies
in it when I first came to review the property but by the time we
moved in, they had fledged and the nest was fully abandoned (only for
the season?) Within the year we took it upon ourselves to remove the
nest and found the myriad bits of interesting detritus they had
gathered. The structure of the nest seemed fully rhymed and
reasoned in spite of being opportunistic to the
branch/twig/grass/fur/??? at hand and wabi sabi in the extreme, but
the strange bright bits of yarn, string, fabric, bottle caps, broken
glass, etc cetera, were much more arcane/occult-to-me. But
nevertheless alliterated, rhymed and likely reasoned. As did our
own slow picking-apart of the structure with the help of Jays,
Packrats, and the weather which had it's own uses for these "objects
of desire"?
Within 3 years West Nile flared up the Rio Grande, killing (most
notably, but not exclusively) Magpies. Even now, 20 years later, the
populations have barely begun to recover in a small way, probably
migrated back down from the Chama/Rio-Grande headwaters and
environs? This anecdote could tangent into the (very few) people I
know of who contracted (and one died) of West Nile during that time,
and the cascade of influences/effects that had on the lives of the
people I know, but except for a vague "where did all the Magpies go?"
I hardly registered the *devastating* effect it had on the Magpies
(and likely many other corvids/birds in the region?). Or tangent to
the "Rabbit Hemorhaggic Fever Pandemic" which coincided with human's
COVID 19 which devastated the Jack and Cotton populations here (and
many other regions globally)...
This is probably an allegory or parable or something. Re:Cautionary
Tales starring NRA wankers - I did just (re) watch two Charlton
Heston classics from my "coming of age" era: "Soylent Green" and
"Planet of the Apes" but was spared (paywalls) from "Omega Man". I
didn't tangent to "Ben Hur" nor "Moses" for different reasons, but to
quote Glen (who might have been quoting David Byrne?):
"Same as it ever was!"
On 11/17/25 10:57 am, glen wrote:
That's the point. Some of us line our nests with robust things
like straw. Others line theirs with fantasies peddled by grifters
and then expect the rest of us to share our nests when theirs
collapse. We will *definitely* bail out the capitalists again ...
and again ... and again, even after/while they['re] deport[ing]
us, abusing us, killing us, sending us to kill foreigners,
stealing our water to run their data centers, etc.
We are the gift that keeps on giving.
On 11/17/25 9:17 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I remember where I was when I saw Torvalds’ first Linux
release. I started downloading pretty much immediately and
looking for a PC to sacrifice. It was hardly capitalist hype.
*From: *Friam <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]> on behalf of glen
<[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]>
*Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 8:54 AM
*To: *[email protected] <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>
*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than
the Dot Com stock collapse?
Exactly. That's Chris' basic argument. Even his point about
fscking Twitter. To argue that it's "running just as well as
it did" seems a bit discordant. But at some altitude, he's
right. It's just as much of a toxic wasteland as it was
before. Every time it crosses my gaze, I wonder why people
still use it ... or bluesky, or reddit, or <arbitrary-tag>.
My experiments with Cline have just about ended. I've decided
to avoid it. It works great with Claude (and some others),
but not with gpt-oss or codestral. Both of those work fine if
*I* manage the prompting. Chris also mentions linux, which
I've been using as my daily driver since ~1995 (?) ... IDK,
maybe I was mostly using ultrix & minix in '95. But
sporadically, as with the Windows 11 update breaking
recovery, all the dorks get all riled up and talk about linux
finally being ready for the desktop. [sigh]
The fact is that we're no smarter than rats or birds who'll
fill our nests with whatever stupid little shiny thing the
capitalists bother to hype.
On 11/17/25 8:21 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
The first example that comes to mind are malls. Malls
aren't needed now so many of them are closing.
Some people see something bad about that. I see
something good about that: Ruts get erased and new
opportunities arise. Power gets redistributed.
We're between cycles of exploitation and exploration, and
there's some adaptation that is required.
-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]> On Behalf Of glen
Sent: Monday, November 17, 2025 8:02 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than
the Dot Com stock collapse?
But Chris' argument isn't really about AI. Chris is as
guilty of preemptive registration as the others.
Short-term markets distort everything. The task is to
free up the terms coercively bound by the grifters and
marketeers. Once the terms are unbound, we can discover
which formalisms fit and which don't.
If we're charitable, Chris is right that *something* is
amiss. The disagreement is about *what* is amiss. Same as
it Ever Was.
On 11/17/25 7:45 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
But what ARE these investments right now? It seems
to me they are well established companies:
Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google. NVIDIA has
existed and will exist should AI revenue dry up, just
like it outlasted Ethereum mining.
The new players aren’t yet public companies. OpenAI
has a longer path to profitability, but Anthropic
(technical users) is already making good progress @
$7B. AI has already penetrated education and will
likely spread more. People will become dependent on
it like they are dependent on cars.
*From: *Friam <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]> on behalf of Prof
David West <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>
*Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 5:14 AM
*To: *[email protected] <[email protected]>
<mailto:[email protected]>
*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse
than the Dot Com stock collapse?
Marcus and Jon are not incorrect. I do see a problem
that they do not, the fact that the vast majority of
users/adopters of AI are dramatically less
technologically compentent than either of these
gentlemen. The manager that is positive that AI will
eliminate most if not all of his human employees, the
student using an LLM to "cheat," the social media
addicts taken with the latest AI fad bots, etc. etc.
almost certainly will become disillusioned and turn
away from AI.
Perhaps more importantly, all the capitalists who see
immediate—not long term—return on investment are not
going to remain invested. Lot's of other peoples
money will be lost as a byproduct.
The market of Jon Marcuses is not large enough to
sustain all the current investment. Maybe one large
AI company will survive (ala Amazon that lost tons of
money for a long long time).
davew
On Sun, Nov 16, 2025, at 3:51 PM, Jon Zingale wrote:
I mostly agree with Marcus' sentiment. The dot
com analogy may be apt, but it also smells too easy
an analog. I find the K-shaped AI adoption to be
bizarre. Personally, I do not believe LLMs, nor any
particular architecture, to be the be-all-end-all. I
suspect we will see a transition away from throwing
money at developing the most general form and a move
toward more idiosyncratic instantiations. For
instance, I continue to think that Deepmind did
meaningful work going the RL path with AlphaGo/Atari
games and it has yet to come to my attention what
happens when Transformers attempt to replicate these
successes. Almost every LLM I have met is really
really bad at go. This said, AI in their current
form, and from this perspective, has been here for a
decade. Some have adopted it and use it to surprising
effect, others treat LLMs as nothing more than a
robust database querying language. What people do
with it and how they perceive it will undoubtedly
have an impact. In the
meantime, I am excited to see what happens as
programmers learn to use formal type theories as
pidgins and LLMs become more amenable to
compositionality.
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