There's a very real risk. The itch the chatbots scratch is partly (mostly, imnsho)
vocal grooming. But it's also partly co-construction/collaboration. I'm
antipathetic to the former. So I don't miss that part. But the 2nd part is
critical. Conversations with the chatbots *feel* to me like living in a planned
community ... i.e. flat-out yucky ... no stigmergy ... no graffiti ... no crabs
living in soup cans. In this case, no long-winded friend constantly polluting the
air with tangent after tangent. >8^D No bent threads. Etc.
I suppose if you want your world to be all grids and bullet points, hyperreal veneer,
then fine. Have your chatbot. But the world's looking a bit grim to those of us who
prefer the forest to Disney World. And if you run across someone who can't tell the
difference between a forest and Disney World ... well, IDK ... that's "uncanny"
to me ... like talking to a sociopath.
On 11/17/25 10:41 AM, Steve Smith wrote:
I don't even know if I will send my response to this thread, I've come to delete most of my
"usual" offerings without sending, some without finishing, others without starting. Some
kind of entropy-minimization strategy on "y'all's" side of my Markov Blanket?
Lots of rich stuff here. I don't think I disagree with any sentiment here (can they ALL be
compatible?). Tom's original (implied) question is probably as much about "should those
of us with fat ETF portfolios switch their mix from high-performing AI-fueled to some other
place with better risk/reward ratios?" as it is about "is there even a 'there there'
in the AI cascade of new affordances and competencies being offered (hyped) by 'the market'.
But maybe they are fundamentally the same question in this highly human-conditioned manifold
of intersubjective reality we inhabit together?
Obligatory anecdote: when a moved to my current property (2000), A huge russian olive (50' tall, 3'diameter trunk, broad reaching branches) hosted a huge magpie nest in one of the forking horizontal branches... maybe 6-8' long made of branches from all over the property (area) and many other elements. It had a half-dozen babies in it when I first came to review the property but by the time we moved in, they had fledged and the nest was fully abandoned (only for the season?) Within the year we took it upon ourselves to remove the nest and found the myriad bits of interesting detritus they had gathered. The structure of the nest seemed fully rhymed and reasoned in spite of being opportunistic to the branch/twig/grass/fur/??? at hand and wabi sabi in the extreme, but the strange bright bits of yarn, string, fabric, bottle caps, broken glass, etc cetera, were much more arcane/occult-to-me. But nevertheless alliterated, rhymed and likely reasoned. As did our own slow
picking-apart of the structure with the help of Jays, Packrats, and the weather which had it's own uses for these "objects of desire"?
Within 3 years West Nile flared up the Rio Grande, killing (most notably, but not exclusively)
Magpies. Even now, 20 years later, the populations have barely begun to recover in a small way,
probably migrated back down from the Chama/Rio-Grande headwaters and environs? This anecdote
could tangent into the (very few) people I know of who contracted (and one died) of West Nile
during that time, and the cascade of influences/effects that had on the lives of the people I know,
but except for a vague "where did all the Magpies go?" I hardly registered the
*devastating* effect it had on the Magpies (and likely many other corvids/birds in the region?).
Or tangent to the "Rabbit Hemorhaggic Fever Pandemic" which coincided with human's COVID
19 which devastated the Jack and Cotton populations here (and many other regions globally)...
This is probably an allegory or parable or something. Re:Cautionary Tales starring NRA wankers - I did just (re) watch two Charlton Heston
classics from my "coming of age" era: "Soylent Green" and "Planet of the Apes" but was spared (paywalls) from
"Omega Man". I didn't tangent to "Ben Hur" nor "Moses" for different reasons, but to quote Glen (who might
have been quoting David Byrne?):
"Same as it ever was!"
On 11/17/25 10:57 am, glen wrote:
That's the point. Some of us line our nests with robust things like straw.
Others line theirs with fantasies peddled by grifters and then expect the rest
of us to share our nests when theirs collapse. We will *definitely* bail out
the capitalists again ... and again ... and again, even after/while they['re]
deport[ing] us, abusing us, killing us, sending us to kill foreigners, stealing
our water to run their data centers, etc.
We are the gift that keeps on giving.
On 11/17/25 9:17 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
I remember where I was when I saw Torvalds’ first Linux release. I started
downloading pretty much immediately and looking for a PC to sacrifice. It was
hardly capitalist hype.
*From: *Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of glen
<[email protected]>
*Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 8:54 AM
*To: *[email protected] <[email protected]>
*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock
collapse?
Exactly. That's Chris' basic argument. Even his point about fscking Twitter. To argue that it's
"running just as well as it did" seems a bit discordant. But at some altitude, he's
right. It's just as much of a toxic wasteland as it was before. Every time it crosses my gaze,
I wonder why people still use it ... or bluesky, or reddit, or <arbitrary-tag>.
My experiments with Cline have just about ended. I've decided to avoid it. It works
great with Claude (and some others), but not with gpt-oss or codestral. Both of
those work fine if *I* manage the prompting. Chris also mentions linux, which I've
been using as my daily driver since ~1995 (?) ... IDK, maybe I was mostly using
ultrix & minix in '95. But sporadically, as with the Windows 11 update breaking
recovery, all the dorks get all riled up and talk about linux finally being ready
for the desktop. [sigh]
The fact is that we're no smarter than rats or birds who'll fill our nests with
whatever stupid little shiny thing the capitalists bother to hype.
On 11/17/25 8:21 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
The first example that comes to mind are malls. Malls aren't needed now so
many of them are closing.
Some people see something bad about that. I see something good about that:
Ruts get erased and new opportunities arise. Power gets redistributed.
We're between cycles of exploitation and exploration, and there's some
adaptation that is required.
-----Original Message-----
From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of glen
Sent: Monday, November 17, 2025 8:02 AM
To: [email protected]
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock
collapse?
But Chris' argument isn't really about AI. Chris is as guilty of preemptive
registration as the others. Short-term markets distort everything. The task is
to free up the terms coercively bound by the grifters and marketeers. Once the
terms are unbound, we can discover which formalisms fit and which don't.
If we're charitable, Chris is right that *something* is amiss. The disagreement
is about *what* is amiss. Same as it Ever Was.
On 11/17/25 7:45 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
But what ARE these investments right now? It seems to me they are well
established companies: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google. NVIDIA has existed
and will exist should AI revenue dry up, just like it outlasted Ethereum mining.
The new players aren’t yet public companies. OpenAI has a longer path to
profitability, but Anthropic (technical users) is already making good progress
@ $7B. AI has already penetrated education and will likely spread more.
People will become dependent on it like they are dependent on cars.
*From: *Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of Prof David West
<[email protected]>
*Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 5:14 AM
*To: *[email protected] <[email protected]>
*Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock
collapse?
Marcus and Jon are not incorrect. I do see a problem that they do not, the fact that the
vast majority of users/adopters of AI are dramatically less technologically compentent
than either of these gentlemen. The manager that is positive that AI will eliminate most
if not all of his human employees, the student using an LLM to "cheat," the
social media addicts taken with the latest AI fad bots, etc. etc. almost certainly will
become disillusioned and turn away from AI.
Perhaps more importantly, all the capitalists who see immediate—not long
term—return on investment are not going to remain invested. Lot's of other
peoples money will be lost as a byproduct.
The market of Jon Marcuses is not large enough to sustain all the current
investment. Maybe one large AI company will survive (ala Amazon that lost tons
of money for a long long time).
davew
On Sun, Nov 16, 2025, at 3:51 PM, Jon Zingale wrote:
I mostly agree with Marcus' sentiment. The dot com analogy may be apt, but it also smells too easy an analog. I find the K-shaped AI adoption to be bizarre. Personally, I do not believe LLMs, nor any particular architecture, to be the be-all-end-all. I suspect we will see a transition away from throwing money at developing the most general form and a move toward more idiosyncratic instantiations. For instance, I continue to think that Deepmind did meaningful work going the RL path with AlphaGo/Atari games and it has yet to come to my attention what happens when Transformers attempt to replicate these successes. Almost every LLM I have met is really really bad at go. This said, AI in their current form, and from this perspective, has been here for a decade. Some have adopted it and use it to surprising effect, others treat LLMs as nothing more than a robust database querying language. What people do with it and how they perceive it will undoubtedly have an impact.
In the
meantime, I am excited to see what happens as programmers learn to use
formal type theories as pidgins and LLMs become more amenable to
compositionality.
--
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