Yeah, I can't imagine any credible estimator using anything less than a high dimensional vector. Much of this sort of high profile thing depends on asymmetry (congressman texting a 20-something). But that asymmetry has to be large enough. If, for example, we were talking about the grocery store manager harassing tellers versus congresspeople harassing (arguably privied) staffers, we have to consider not only the extent of the asymmetry, but also where that delta exists in the whole space of power.
I think this is where the "punching up vs punching down" heuristic enters. The "democratic establishment" punching down at Hasan Piker has asymmetry. But the Hasan Piker punching up at classicism/liberalism/crony-capitalism also has asymmetry. (Granted, Piker's actually punching sideways, since his streaming empire seems at least capitalist-ic, if not purely parasocial exploitation.) I dithered on whether the 1st accusation should indicate a 50/50 chance the target is well-named as "harasser" because these asymmetries sit in the "high profile" region, unlike the manager-teller one. There'll always be a Christopher Steele out there hallucinating oppo, if you move into the high profile region. Maybe one should regulate α in the high profile region but β in the low profile region? On 4/14/26 8:09 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote:
Here in California, on the exact same day this came to light, Tom Steyer started on remarkable personal attack ads against Swalwell. A shared cause or bandwagon effect could be missing too. That accusers may not be independent events at all. *From: *Friam <[email protected]> on behalf of glen <[email protected]> *Date: *Tuesday, April 14, 2026 at 7:40 AM *To: *[email protected] <[email protected]> *Subject: *[FRIAM] vibe coding I don't know Julia. And I don't understand Bayes' Theorem. But it's interesting that Swalwell was pressured to resign, given the accusations against Trump. So when I originally asked Devstral to write me a julia program to estimate the likelihood Swalwell is a harasser, it incremented α (in Β(α,β)). But decrementing β better fits my intuition. The output seems reasonable. >8^D Too bad Swalwell has the organs that respond to shame. He could've been president some day, after racking up several more accusations ... and maybe a conviction or two.
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