I don't know Julia. And I don't understand Bayes' Theorem. But it's interesting that Swalwell was pressured to resign, given the accusations against Trump. So when I originally asked Devstral to write me a julia program to estimate the likelihood Swalwell is a harasser, it incremented α (in Β(α,β)). But decrementing β better fits my intuition. The output seems reasonable. >8^D
strange coincidence that I would have just (yesterday) indulged my curiosity in *trying* to apply Dempster-Shafer belief/plausibility intervals (which I intuit better than Bayes probability) to try to analyze how likely the whole DOGE and Coristine's play in/alongside that yielded any real broad breach and fusion of public data.
I ended up working from a Bel/Pla interval of (.15, .50) to (.20, .95) with only a little digging. This sets the stage for me to try to consider issues like Swalwell's accusations in that light, and how media reporting *muddies* evidence by conflating various "facts" and making their own (not always fully justified) inferences.
I did not use AI for Vibe coding (or coding at all) and worked the "math" manually but DID use GPT (or was it Claude) to help me drill down on evidence in the public record... the LLM *was* very conservative and had to be *urged* to look a little deeper/wider than first pass. It almost always wanted to gaslight me into a mild form of "nothing to see here"... sort of an anti-conspiracy bias transform in it' mechanism?
My gut estimate is that the B/P interval on Swalwell's bad behaviour is vaguely (.50, .95)... some chance that all the accusations will turn out to be a coordinated attack and/or inflation of some kind(s) but nevertheless quite plausible that he did some/all of what he has been accused of, and perhaps more yet to be revealed.
I've a friend that insists: "Power is Corruption" rather than merely "Power Corrupts"... I actually think both are true. A virtuous/vicious cycle? I try to apply it to myself and my own asymmetry of power in various relations and circumstances but it IS rather hard to get even close to the edge of that abyss without a bit of spiritual vertigo.
Too bad Swalwell has the organs that respond to shame. He could've been president some day, after racking up several more accusations ... and maybe a conviction or two.
I assume that the likes of DT and JE and GM and now ES (patterned a bit after Bill Cosby?) all have some really powerful anti-vertigo techniques?
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