What a great article! Thanks for directing us to it.
During the 35 year cooling in the middle of the last century, scientists feared the onset of the next Ice Age. I was discussing this 30 years ago.
However, it changed in mid-1975 to a surface increase in temperatures. (No, CO2 increase did not start in 1975 - it was increasing throughout the century, including during the cooling.)
I say surface temperature, for the troposphere - the 17 miles or so of atmosphere above the surface (it varies with latitude) - has not warmed, even though this is where climate is formed.
The next Ice Age is a serious matter. The figure seems to vary, depending on who you read, but these bloody things last for something like 90,000 years.
Who will be around when the next one is over? One assumes the few survivors of the 6 billion who headed for the equator to escape the roar of the marching glaciers in the north.
Or perhaps we'll go underground. In any event, we have to stop wasting our substance in preparations for war and, more importantly, stop the extravagant waste of our resources.
But, then, perhaps we should be doing that anyway.
Harry
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Ray wrote:
From the Article: California coastline, and Santa Barbara must have been as cold as Juneau is now. (But the regional record is poorly understood, and I know at least one reason why. These days when one goes to hear a talk on ancient climates of North America, one is likely to learn that the speaker was forced into early retirement from the U.S. Geological Survey by budget cuts. Rather than a vigorous program of studying regional climatic change, we see the shortsighted preaching of cheaper government at any cost.)Good morning folks, Hi Steven thanks for the URL. Its always good to read what Native Elders have been saying for a long time finally acknowledged in print even if they aren't given credit. You can get a lot done if you're willing not to take the credit for it. How good to see that the rest of the country is beginning to experience what the Arts learned when these first cursed theories were expounded and used. At the time science embraced economics and went for "efficiency" and "utility" but now we know that it was old fashioned "venality." When will the rest of you "science" oriented folks learn that these models for your markets don't work? I still maintain that it is "religion" if for no other reason than you sound like Christians who keep saying "don't blame Jesus" for bad Christians. Harry Pollard as a Jesuit. How's that collar Harry? "If all the world would follow his dictums everything would be just fine." Perhaps you didn't bother to read the Donahue URL that I posted earlier or perhaps you thought it was too low class for such a high class group? Until you start dealing with the arguments seriously, things will just get worse. How long? What of the jewels of Western Civilization will be destroyed next by this economic, small government idiocy before you finally pay attention? Perhaps we could start with jobs again. Jobs for worthwhile accomplishments rather than how you can get the best deal and save the most money. Real accomplishment rarely costs little initially but it often is all that's left once the world moves on. The only purpose for the money in the first place is to have the ability to do something significant, instead Smith, Jones and Green and all of the other economic funny folks said that the purpose of economics was to provide food, clothing and shelter, something that hunter gathering does quiet well but it doesn't create the Top Hat Class with mansions in Paris (which will soon be cold if the above article is correct) London, Palm Beach, New York and the Hamptons if they are members of the 1%. If they are the 1/2% you can add LA and Athens to the list and I'm not talking "apartments" except maybe New York where the "apartment" is.......well you can imagine. That is the legacy of the economic theories of this world. Dismal indeed, especially for most of the population. Happy Solstice. Maybe we are all finishing the longest run away from the warmth and the Sun is starting to come back. But it will be a long cold time before all of these drought starved civilized institutions have enough warmth for there to be a Spring. We will all be dead before that happens. We can't even agree on how to prepare for the story told in this article much less discipline ourselves enough to become real serious product oriented creators rather than speculators. Remember the basic rule for any project is that you must have the "Time, Resources and Access" for it to succeed. Today we have no time, a minority has most of the resources and most of us don't have any idea what "Access" means. Happy Solstice! REH PS today the government found the third ranking member of Hamas in the world living in the US by following the trail of money. Where did he live? In Texas of course. ----- Original Message ----- From: "Stephen Straker" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Sent: Saturday, December 21, 2002 2:48 AM Subject: [Futurework] Re: Ice sheets, etc > Here's a good account of the causes and likelihood of an > abript cooling event. - SS > > "The Great Climate Flip-Flop," The Atlantic Monthly, 281 > (January 1998), pp. 47-74. > by William H.Calvin > http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/98jan/climate.htm > > [Excerpts:] > > "Climate change" is popularly understood to mean greenhouse > warming, which, it is predicted, will cause flooding, severe > windstorms, and killer heat waves. But warming could lead, > paradoxically, to drastic cooling - a catastrophe that could > threaten the survival of civilization... > > "Of this much we're sure: global climate flip-flops have > frequently happened in the past, and they're likely to > happen again. It's also clear that sufficient global > warming could trigger an abrupt cooling in at least two ways > - by increasing high-latitude rainfall or by melting > Greenland's ice, both of which could put enough fresh water > into the ocean surface to suppress flushing... > > ... That increased quantities of greenhouse gases will lead > to global warming is as solid a scientific prediction as can > be found... > > To the long list of predicted consequences of global warming > - stronger storms, methane release, habitat changes, > ice-sheet melting, rising seas, stronger El Niņos, killer > heat waves - we must now add an abrupt, catastrophic > cooling. Whereas the familiar consequences of global > warming will force expensive but gradual adjustments, the > abrupt cooling promoted by man-made warming looks like a > particularly efficient means of committing mass suicide. > > We cannot avoid trouble by merely cutting down on our > present warming trend, though that's an excellent place to > start. Paleoclimatic records reveal that any notion we may > once have had that the climate will remain the same unless > pollution changes it is wishful thinking. Judging from the > duration of the last warm period, we are probably near the > end of the current one. Our goal must be to stabilize the > climate in its favorable mode and ensure that enough > equatorial heat continues to flow into the waters around > Greenland and Norway. A stabilized climate must have a wide > "comfort zone," and be able to survive the El Niņos of the > short term. We can design for that in computer models of > climate, just as architects design earthquake-resistant > skyscrapers. Implementing it might cost no more, in > relative terms, than building a medieval cathedral. But we > may not have centuries for acquiring wisdom, and it would be > wise to compress our learning into the years immediately > ahead. We have to discover what has made the climate of the > past 8,000 years relatively stable, and then figure out how > to prop it up. > > ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ > > Stephen Straker
****************************** Harry Pollard Henry George School of LA Box 655 Tujunga CA 91042 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Tel: (818) 352-4141 Fax: (818) 353-2242 *******************************
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