It's hard to know what Americans think right now, or Canadians, or Brits, or Iraqis for that matter. Everything seems so muddled. The American economy, the most important driver of global growth, is bogged down, and despite positive pronouncements by politicians, it may not move forward for some time. Bush's $700 billion tax relief plan is not expected to have much impact in the short term and may do little more than enrich the already rich in the long term. Meanwhile, unemployment is rising, and so is the US deficit, which could mean that the US government will be in a diminished position to do something about the economy in future. The benefits of the unemployed who still have benefits have been extended, but those whose benefits have run out have nowhere to turn - witness the op-ed piece in today's NY Times*. And, of course, for some increasingly unknown reason, Bush still wants to git Saddam.
In spite of what we learned in Economics 101, economies are more than aggregate supply and demand curves and people are more than indifference diagrams. To hope, to plan and to spend, people need to feel good about their economic prospects. I believe that many people do not feel very good about them right now. People also need to feel safe and secure. Again, the extent to which they do so is questionable. If they are to feel bad, they need good reasons for doing so. Patriotism and casting blame on a far away bogeyman provide such reasons. Perhaps Saddam has a purpose after all. Ed *http://www.nytimes.com/2003/01/09/opinion/09HERB.html?todaysheadlines Ed Weick 577 Melbourne Ave. Ottawa, ON, K2A 1W7 Canada Phone (613) 728 4630 Fax (613) 728 9382 > Numbers are always hard (especially if the base-line hasn't been > quantified), but it is clear that Washington is slowly coming to its senses, > and that those who have always been skeptical of the Bush admin claims are > finding ways to language and channel their opposition. I haven't looked at > the Slate estimate, but I would put war with Iraq down around 20% > probability, at most. Powell has done a great job, anti-war US activists, > too. And we can thank North Korea for their inadvertant help, as well. > > Perle, Wolfowitz et al must be crying in their milk, or whatever the > metaphor is.... > > Of course, there is still that nagging probability, so everyone should keep > on denouncing the possibility of war and the shabby logic that lies behind > it. > > Cheers, > Lawry > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On Behalf Of > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Sent: Friday, January 03, 2003 2:48 PM > > To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > Subject: [Futurework] the odds of war > > > > > > > > Some nonsense with numbers. But still may be of interest to > > some. The odds > > of war with Iraq. > > > > http://slate.msn.com/id/2076318/ > > _______________________________________________ > > Futurework mailing list > > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > > > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [EMAIL PROTECTED] > http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
