I've never mentioned this in my various Global Warming posts, but something peculiar happened in the planet's warming history.
After the 40 years of so of warming in the first part of the last century, there were 35 years of cooling. That we know. Then suddenly, as these things go, in the later part of the 70's, there was a change to warming.
I haven't come across a credible reason why this abrupt occurred. People are too engrossed in the warming to bother with why it started again. Could it be that CO2 increase slipped across a threshold? Doesn't seem likely.
The sudden resumption of warming might have been caused by a wobble, or some other planetary change. As we already KNOW the answer, the "scientists" involved are perhaps unlikely to look past the CO2 hypothesis. I have before mentioned the lack of uncertainty on the IPCC site.
If anyone runs into some hypotheses for the sudden change from cooling to warming, I would be interested in knowing them.
Harry
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Keith wrote:
I'm not totally persuaded that our carbon dioxide emissions are the cause of global warming (if indeed, it's more than a normal climatic wobble) but, nevertheless, the use of fossil fuels has all sorts of other undesirable consequences (including semi-monopolisation of resources by big business and governments, and the destruction of local communities), as well as being a resource which will finally give out in a few decades (that is, at a sensible price).The only realistic source of energy will be the old-fashoined one of solar energy. The *annual* receipt of energy from the sun is 5,000 times more than the *total* fossil fuel resources. There are two basic ways of tapping into this energy: either by changing it into electricity by means of silicon-electronic methods, or by producing hydrogen by genomic methods, probably via man-made bacteria. The only prominent research unit which is known to be attempting the latter is Craig Venter's Institute for Biological Energy Alternatives in Maryland. However, considering China's rapid advances in stem cell research, and given the scientific make-up of its Politburo, it would be most unlikely that at least one or two teams of Chinese researchers have not already started to pursue the same objective. Every year <www.Edge.org>>> carries out a survey among the world's leading scientists and thinkers. This year it pretended that President Bush was asking the question: "What are the pressing scientific issues for the nation and the world, and what is your advice on how I can begin to deal with them?" At present, more than 75 individuals have replied and among them is Craig Venter. Here is his reply. <<<< Dear President Bush: At no time in our history is science more important in our society and thus to your administration than now. We have made exciting and promising advances in so many areas of scientific and medical research yet we still have so much to learn. This is especially true in the rapidly growing field of genomics. In just the last 10 years we have gone from having the complete genetic map of just a few microbes to today having completed the sequencing of more than 100 organisms. With the genetic material in hand of organisms such as human, mouse, and fruit fly, researchers now have the opportunity to understand these complex creatures so that we may one day better treat disease, fully understand evolutionary biology, and thus understand the most fundamental aspects of life and how we as humans function. The future is indeed bright but only if we have a science-literate administration to help translate this basic research into potential treatments. With these great advances also come tough ethical issues. But we must not become mired in these debates nor let fear and ignorance win out over progress for us all. While I cannot accept the offer to be science advisor I would like to outline a few ideas for your administration to consider. There are three key areas that need immediate attention: • 1) Revamping the health care system using genomics and other predictive tools to move toward a preventative medicine based system. • 2) Stepping up our efforts in developing deterrents and defensive mechanisms to overcome the biological warfare threat to humans and agriculture. • 3) Moving as rapidly as possible toward a hydrogen-based economy. Our health care system is suffering from double digit inflation while the number of uninsured and underinsured continues to rise beyond any acceptable level for a civilized nation. We have now the potential to dramatically change the cost of health care by using the new predictive tools that will come from the genomics revolution. It is imperative that we make the commitment to go the less costly route of preventing and limiting the extent of disease rather than treating symptoms after they occur as we do now. On this same preventative theme we can greatly diminish or effectively eliminate the threat of bioterrorism by using the modern tools of genomics to more quickly and accurately detect a suspect agent including genetically modified organisms; develop new effective vaccines without the risk profile associated with current small pox and anthrax vaccines; and develop new effective antivirals and antibiotics. While your administration has made great progress in providing new funding for these efforts, more direct funding for the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) at the NIH will move this field faster. Despite much discussion on the topic of alternative energy solutions, the United States continues to rely almost exclusively on fossil fuels. According to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) approximately 80 percent of all human-caused carbon dioxide emissions currently come from fossil fuel combustion. The DOE also estimates that world carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 6.1 billion metric tons carbon equivalent in 1999 to 7.9 billion metric tons per year in 2010 and to 9.9 billion metric tons in 2020. This continued consumption of fossil fuels is ample evidence that there is a growing need to eliminate carbon dioxide output into the environment and capture back some of the carbon dioxide associated with global warming. Recent climate modeling from Scripps Institute of Oceanography suggests that if climate change is allowed to continue unabated a temperature increase of just two degrees will be enough to dramatically reduce annual snowfall and ultimately food production due to the drought that will develop in our most important agricultural states. As a nation we must invest in finding new solutions for our energy needs. I believe that genomics could provide a viable avenue for alleviating some of the problems associated with carbon-based fuels. I believe it is imperative that we push forward on all the fronts outlined above to insure energy independence, national security, and an improved environment, health and well-being for future generations. Sincerely J. Craig Venter
****************************** Harry Pollard Henry George School of LA Box 655 Tujunga CA 91042 [EMAIL PROTECTED] Tel: (818) 352-4141 Fax: (818) 353-2242 *******************************
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