At 13:06 19/09/2003 -0400, you wrote:
Ahh Keith. You were amply rewarded for your predictions. You were asked again what you "thought about things."
arthur
Actually, I was dressing up my story a little! He and I often have a chat about things (that is, about three or four times a year! ) He first thought I was a suitable financial confidant when he used to see walking past his window most mornings with my head buried in the Financial Times. His house is at the top of a steep woodland track and one day, when I was particularly breathless, I had draped myself across his garden wall recovering. He came out of his house because he thought I'd had a heart attack and that's when we first met. In actual fact on the particular occasion I mentioned before, he was already thinking seriously about investing in Euros 'cos he thought they were going to increase versus the dollar. My opinion on that morning only confirmed his. The difference between us was that he had the courage (and the wherewithall!) to buy them (1,500,000 of them!), so I don't feel at all miffed at not getting a cigar from him. I admire his courage. He never told me precisely how much he'd made but it must have been in the region of US$150,000. Perhaps this wasn't enough to buy a whole block of apartments in Boulogne, but it certainly helped! (It wasn't Boulogne actually. It was Cherbourg -- my memory is wonky these days.)
But my morning walks don't always have beneficial effects. Another chap who'd also noticed me walking past with my head buried in the Financial Times was so impressed that he started taking the paper. Within a few days he was persuaded by one particular writer to buy Marconi shares because they had dropped to a low price. But they were only pausing on their way through a hole in the ground and my friend lost every penny. But, thank goodness, I hadn't advised him personally 'cos I might have agreed with the FT writer! In fact, we hadn't spoken with each other until a couple of months ago in the local pub when he introduced himself to me and told me his sad tale.
My morning walks are not even beneficial to me sometimes. I have long got into the habit of holding my FT fairly fully high in front of me so that it gives me warning if I'm about to bump into a tree or a lamp-post. But in February this year, when there had been a storm during the night, a tree had blown down in my path, and I went over it arse-over-tit. My dog thought this was very amusing and barked excitedly at this interesting turn of events. However, I was basically uninjured and there was nobody around to watch this absurd event.
By the way, I was much impressed with the paper by Audrey Cronin that you recommended last night. It's a superb piece of work. It gives no radical solution though (nor would one expect it). The only thought that occurs to me this morning after my subconscious had been working on it during the night is that George Bush and other politicians who play to the fundamentalists could be hoisted by their own petard in due course -- just as the Saudi Arabian royal family are now in hock to the Wahhabi priesthood and their surreptitious support for Al Qaeda. When times start to become grim in America (as they surely will when oil prices start to rise) then America's home-grown fundamentalism might be the cause of its own brand of terrorism. America's fundamentalists are fairly benign at the moment -- shooting the odd birth-control doctor now and again -- but could become dangerous in the future as the middle- and low-skill levels of jobs fall away.
Keith
-----Original Message----- From: Keith Hudson [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Friday, September 19, 2003 1:46 AM To: Harry Pollard Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Permanent pipeline repairs (wasRe: [Futurework] FW: Permanent War
Hi Harry,
No, no, you have it wrong! America doesn't keep on having to declare war to help its economy. The one in Iraq will be good enough for the time being. The oil pipeline to Turkey (remember? -- the one that was going to repay America for its humanitarian efforts on behalf of us all?) was yesterday blown up for the fifth time. The constant repair of this (and much else) will keep Halliburton and Bechtel busy and profitable for a long time. Bush Senior may be feeling a trifle embarrassed on behalf of his pathetic son but privately he must be pleased with the quarterly financial statements that the mailman delivers to him.
When you were here in Bath, your son will remember my pointing out to him a casual friend I sometimes meet on my morning dogwalk who asked me about 18 months ago whether he should invest in Euros. I had told him: Yes, most certainly. I met him again yesterday and from what I gather he's sold his Euros now and bought a block of apartments in Boulogne on the profits he made. Not only that, but he's now going round the world and won't be back till March. He asked me again what I thought about things (meaning, did I have any more financial advice?). Since I haven't received a penny from him by way of a thank-you -- even a cigar would have been appreciated -- I adroitly proferred some non-financial advice instead -- viz. that Bush will be seriously thinking of vacating Iraq by the time he returns because, by then, the Shia Muslims will be turning against him in earnest in addition to the Baathists and the Sunnis. If he can make money out of that -- fine. But, in actuality, it is likely that we'll all be paying for Bush's war by then in terms of inflating currencies all over.
Keith
Keith Hudson, 6 Upper Camden Place, Bath, England, <www.evolutionary-economics.org>
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