At 20:15 16/12/03 -0800, you wrote:
This was the Iraqi transcript of the conversation between Saddam,
Tariq Azizhis, and April Glaspie, the American Ambassador. It was
translated by the New York Times. ------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------
Very interesting indeed. Hitherto, I've had a totally open mind as to whether America gave the green light or not to Saddam to invade Kuwait because I hadn't come across information on the matter.
It is quite clear from the overall context that the American Ambassador did not give any green light.
Paradoxically, if there were any justification for any sort of invasion by America, then it should have been Kuwait long before Saddam did, because here was (and still is) a dictatorship. It might have been useful also in warning Saudi Arabia that their form of government had better be reformed -- or else. It would certainly have stopped Saddam invading Kuwait, of course, and might have been instrumental in bringing Saddam to his senses within his own country.
But changing the culture of a country even as small as Kuwait is easier said than done. They call it "nation-building" don't they? As though it's already been achieved somewhere! But it's never been done as far as I'm aware. They're trying in Afghanistan but there's little sign that it's succeeding -- warlordism and Talibanism seem to be resurgent.
I think that the Americans were stupid in showing Saddam to the world with his beard and having his mouth swab taken. The Arab world may not have liked Saddam but their pride will be affected now. It is likely that extremism will grow now in all Islamic countries. I fear that reform in Iran will be set back many years and that the feeble attempts at democratisation in Saudi Arabia will be halted. Pakistan could become uncontrollable.
It seems to me that the Americans cannot possibly allow anything resembling democracy in Iraq because the Shias will become a majority. Even though they will have been delighted that Saddam is captured they won't necessarily change their minds about America. And they might not let US and UK oil corporations have contracts in northern Iraq. It will have to be a puppet government but the Americans troops will have to stay in that case -- just like the Brits in Northern Ireland.
What would the American public say or do in that case? Very possibly, if they were persuaded that the Iraqi "government" were legitimate then they might not take much notice despite steady fatalities to American troops -- just as the British population did over NI for the past 30 years. Despite soldiers' deaths they were relatively infrequent and most fatalities were of Loyalists or IRA and our population gradually lost interest in NI.
So it looks to me as though the Americans will institute a government in Baghdad which will be mainly partial to the Sunnis (because of their governmental experience), and in the streets the Sunnis will be fighting with the Shias as in NI. I suppose it depends on the numbers of arms that the Shias have. The Americans tried to disarm them three months ago (gave them a deadline on 13 September) but this was ignored and the Americans could do nothing about it. If the Shias have a lot of kalashnikoffs then there'll be a massacre of Sunnis, in my view. But if they haven't got many arms then it'll be NI all over again and Sunni-Shia troubles will probably continue in an undecided way for decades -- and decades (until the oil runs out, and then the Americans will be uninterested in Iraq from then onwards). It won't really matter whether there's a Democratic or a Republican president -- just like here vis-a-vis NI.
I think there'll be many similarities between Iraq and NI from now onwards.
Keith
Sept. 23rd, 1990
[HP: Although we "backed" Iraq, apparently it was not enough to quench
the desire for "better relations.]
GLASPIE: As you know, he (the president) directed the United States
Administration to reject the suggestion of implementing trade
sanctions.
HUSSEIN: There is nothing left for us to buy from America. Only wheat.
Because every time we want to buy something, they say it is forbidden.
I am afraid that one day you will say, "You are going to make
gunpowder out of wheat."
GLASPIE: I have a direct instruction from the President to seek better
relations with Iraq.
---------------------------------------------------------------
[HP: As we are told constantly, the US gave the "green light" to
Saddam to invade Kuwait. Here is the "green light]
GLASPIE: I think I understand this. I have lived here for years. I
admire your extraordinary efforts to rebuild your country. I know you
need funds. We understand that and our opinion is that you should have
the opportunity to rebuild your country. But we have no opinion on the
Arab-Arab conflicts, like your border disagreement with Kuwait.
I was in the American Embassy in Kuwait during the late 60's. The
instruction we had during this period was that we should express no
opinion on this issue and that the issue is not associated with
America. James Baker has directed our official spokesmen to emphasize
this instruction. We hope you can solve this problem using any
suitable methods via Klibi or via President Mubarak. All that we hope
is that these issues are solved quickly.
[And]
GLASPIE: Frankly, we can see only that you have deployed massive
troops in the south. Normally that would not be any of our business.
But when this happens in the context of what you said on your national
day, then when we read the details in the two letters of the Foreign
Minister, then when we see the Iraqi point of view that the measures
taken by the U.A.E. and Kuwait is, in the final analysis, parallel to
military aggression against Iraq, then it would be reasonable for me
to be concerned.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
----
[HP: The "suitable methods" were talks with those Arab leaders. In
fact during the conversation they discussed the upcoming talks. There
was certainly no "green light" given for an invasion of Kuwait. Here's
more on the suitable methods.]
GLASPIE: Mr. President, it would be helpful if you could give us an
assessment of the effort made by your Arab brothers and whether they
have achieved anything.
HUSSEIN: On this subject, we agreed with President Mubarak that the
Prime Minister of Kuwait would meet with the deputy chairman of the
Revolution Command Council in Saudi Arabia, because the Saudis
initiated contact with us, aided by President Mubarak's efforts. He
just telephoned me a short while ago to say the Kuwaitis have agreed
to that suggestion.
GLASPIE: Congratulations.
HUSSEIN: A protocol meeting will be held in Saudi Arabia. Then the
meeting will be transferred to Baghdad for deeper discussion directly
between Kuwait and Iraq. We hope we will reach some result. We hope
that the long-term view and the real interests will overcome Kuwaiti
greed.
GLASPIE: May I ask you when you expect Sheik Saad to come to Baghdad?
HUSSEIN: I suppose it would be on Saturday or Monday at the latest. I
told brother Mubarak that the agreement should be in Baghdad Saturday
or Sunday. You know that brother Mubarak's visits have always been a
good omen.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
-------------------
[The Ambassador - I want to say Ambassadress, but that would probably
be sexist or something - was concerned about troop movements toward
Kuwait, but pleased about talks to defuse the situation. So, the
'green light' was given to the talks that were taking place. ]
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