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mrc. *======================================================================================================* > On 11 November 2016 at 10:26, B.DORPI P. <bdo...@indopetroleum.com> wrote: >> >>> >>> >>> *http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/trump-pax-americana-asia-pacific/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Daily%20The%20Strategist+CID_4cb358ab75f931967e0c235dd720705c&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=Trump%20Pax%20Americana%20in%20the%20AsiaPacific* >>> <http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/trump-pax-americana-asia-pacific/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Daily%20The%20Strategist&utm_content=Daily%20The%20Strategist+CID_4cb358ab75f931967e0c235dd720705c&utm_source=CampaignMonitor&utm_term=Trump%20Pax%20Americana%20in%20the%20AsiaPacific> >>> >>> *11 Nov 2016* >>> >>> >>> >>> [image: Image courtesy of Flickr user Gage Skidmore.] >>> >>> *The election of Donald Trump is the political equivalent of a nuclear >>> bomb, an explosion that not only destroys the immediate environment but >>> also scatters radioactive fallout far away, with damage that can last for >>> years.* >>> >>> *The first casualties in the US are obvious—Hillary Clinton and the >>> Democratic Party, and the political establishment in the US writ large, >>> although some familiar faces from inside the Washington Beltway will no >>> doubt sheepishly turn up in Trump’s administration.* >>> >>> The potential damage to America’s standing and interest in the >>> Asia-Pacific is also clear. Trump has long been antagonistic towards >>> *Japan,* starting from the trade wars of the eighties. More recently, >>> he has threatened to impose punitive tariffs on *Chinese imports* and >>> has said the US Treasury should immediately declare Beijing a currency >>> manipulator. >>> >>> *On national security, Trump has singled out Japan, South Korea and NATO >>> for freeloading on the US,* vowing that they will pay a greater share >>> of the cost of American troops on their soil. He seems indifferent to >>> blowing up the postwar status quo, and the prospect of Japan and South >>> Korea going nuclear, to take responsibility for their own security. >>> >>> All of this is consistent with views Trump has espoused for decades. He >>> is anti-free trade, suspicious of globalisation and unconvinced about >>> Washington’s role as the prime security guarantor in places far from the >>> homeland, in Asia, Europe and the Middle East. >>> >>> Asked by Playboy magazine in 1990 >>> <https://filthy.media/donald-trump-playboy-interview> to describe >>> President Trump’s foreign policy, Trump replied: >>> >>> *‘He would believe very strongly in extreme military strength. He >>> wouldn’t trust anyone. He wouldn’t trust the Russians; he wouldn’t trust >>> our allies; he’d have a huge military arsenal, perfect it, understand it. >>> Part of the problem is that we’re defending some of the wealthiest >>> countries in the world for nothing. … We’re being laughed at around the >>> world, defending Japan.’* >>> >>> All *that rings true today.* The most damaging impact to Pax Americana >>> in the Asia-Pacific, though, might be in the longer-term fallout rather >>> than the immediate explosions that we’re witnessing now. >>> >>> For all of the dramatic cycles of US domestic and diplomatic politics in >>> the postwar era, through the Korean and Vietnam wars, Watergate, the >>> strategic drift of the early year of Bill Clinton’s presidency, the >>> disastrous second Iraq war and the financial crisis of 2008, the US has >>> always displayed a capacity to renew itself and its global standing. >>> >>> *The US remains the largest economy in the world by some distance.* It >>> still has military and intelligence assets spread throughout the >>> Asia-Pacific, from South Korea all the way down to Australia. In the >>> short-term, Trump can do little to change that, even if he wanted to do. >>> >>> On top of its hard assets, America also has had huge soft power appeal >>> as an open, vibrant and creative society with intangible ingredients of >>> success that foreigners would love to be able to emulate. >>> >>> With or without Trump, the balance of power in the Asia-Pacific is in >>> the midst of huge change. Long before the US election, regional nations >>> were increasingly feeling squeezed between the superpower they have long >>> been comfortable with, the US, and its rising rival, China, which would >>> ultimately like to replace it as the regional hegemon. >>> >>> *No nation in the region wants to be forced to choose between the US and >>> China.** Nearly all would like both of these superpowers to co-exist >>> and co-operate in a way that benefits all.* ( !!!! / marco) >>> >>> *Trump, an unpredictable narcissist with zero governing experience,* >>> has the capacity to upend that equation in ways that will run down the >>> position of the US and elevate the standing of China. Nations that are >>> already hedging their bets will start instinctively to lean towards Beijing. >>> >>> In some scenarios, regional leaders could warm to Trump. Long an >>> aficionado of strongmen leaders, he is likely to be generally indifferent >>> to complaints about human rights abuses. *Cambodia’s Hun Sen has **applauded >>> his win* >>> <http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-trump-cambodia-idUSKBN12Y0CH?il=0>*. >>> The Philippines Rodrigo Duterte also **issued a positive statement* >>> <http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3919410/Philippines-Duterte-congratulates-Trump-wants-work-minister.html> >>> *.* >>> >>> As someone who prides himself as an expert negotiator, Trump may also be >>> convinced that he needs to shore up ties with Japan and ASEAN nations to >>> strengthen his hand in dealing with Beijing.* Shinzo Abe’s **rapid >>> outreach to Trump* >>> <http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/11/10/national/politics-diplomacy/abe-trump-look-meet-next-week-new-york/#.WCUHZ8mWXRY>*—he >>> was one of the first foreign leaders to talk to him—suggests he is thinking >>> along those lines too.* >>> >>> But *Trump’s longstanding views may push him in the opposite direction.* >>> His instinctive reaction in any disagreement is to pick a fight with his >>> opponent. There’s no bigger target in Asia than China, which Trump >>> repeatedly attacked on the campaign trail. That threatens to be a disaster >>> if it gets out of control. A trade war with China, after all, is >>> effectively a trade war with Asia, because of the way that manufacturing >>> supply chains wind their way through multiple countries before finally >>> being shipped from China to the US. >>> >>> The Trump’s team most important adviser on China is academic, *Peter >>> Navarro,* who has long demonized China as an enemy of the US. Asked >>> about China, Navarro made no bones >>> <https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jul/18/donald-trump-china-adviser-peter-navarro-news-corp-murdoch> >>> about the chances of commercial conflict with China. ‘To those who say >>> Donald Trump will start a trade war, Trump says we are already in a trade >>> war,’ he said, ‘it’s long past time we fought back.’ >>> >>> *Trump is largely ignorant of, or indifferent to, the region’s >>> increasingly important regional forums*, like the East Asia leaders’ >>> annual summit. Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a >>> point of turning up to regional meetings, to display their commitment to >>> the region. Trump may fall back into a pattern of benign neglect. >>> >>> If Trump succeeds at restoring vitality to the US economy, then the rest >>> of the world might be willing to indulge his vanities and ignore his >>> nastiness. But if he really does mean half of what he said on the campaign >>> trail, then Asian nations will have to think long and hard about a new >>> start themselves. >>> >>> *If Donald Trump’s America will no longer underwrite their prosperity >>> and security, the countries that relied on the US will have to find that >>> support somewhere else.* >>> Author >>> >>> *Richard McGregor* was *Financial Times bureau chief in Beijing and >>> Washington,* and previously reported for *The Australian* from Japan >>> and China. He is the author of *‘The Party: The Secret World of China’s >>> Communist Rulers’ *and is finishing a new book on Sino-Japanese >>> relations. Image courtesy of Flickr user Gage Skidmore >>> <https://www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/23772709976/>. >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> > >
