I disagree with the assumption that a forked project will ultimately fail. If there is truly a need for a fork, such as a total lack of support for an Open Source MySQL environment, then I'd predict that a working community based on that fork will build itself up and be self-sustaining.
Some examples of this are CentOS, which is arguably a fork of Red Hat Enterprise Linux, but has probably a significantly large installed base then RHEL; TigerCRM, a fork of SugarCRM; and Joomla, a very successful fork of the Mambo content management system. "MySQL" is a brand more well-known to the techies and developers than the PHBs, so I don't think there would be a lot of trouble for people to follow the forks.
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