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World faces a climate war says expert
Gwynne Dyer speaks in Pembroke
Posted 23 mins ago
Nobody lets their children starve unless there are no other options
available.
This from international affairs expert Gwynne Dyer, who spoke to a full
house of Algonquin College students and community members at Festival Hall
Monday night.
Mr. Dyer's lecture, entitled "Climate Wars," outlined the impact climate
change is having not only on the world's climate, but on the world's food
supply and military operations.
Mr. Dyer has worked as a freelance journalist, columnist, broadcaster and
lecturer on international affairs for more than 20 years.
He has obtained degrees from Canadian, American and British universities
in history, specifically in military history and Middle Eastern studies.
Because of his extensive background in military history, he has lectured
at the Canadian Forces College in Toronto and on war studies at the Royal
Military Academy in Sandhurst, England.
Mr. Dyer also has military experience as a reserve naval officer in the
Royal Canadian Naval Reserve, the U. S. Naval Reserve and the Royal Naval
Reserve in England.
As a journalist, he is well-known for his twice-weekly column on
international affairs which is used by various news agencies worldwide.
Two years ago, he said he started to notice the keen interest military
officials were taking in terms of their role in the climate change crisis,
especially in the U. S.
He said he spent two years researching the issue, speaking with military
generals, scientists, politicians and diplomats.
From there, he said, he drew conclusions from his research.
One is that climate change is happening much faster than is known to the
general public. He said research referred to in the media, such as findings
made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which is made up of
scientists and experts chosen from around the world, is a conservative
estimate.
A glaring example, he said, is the rapid melting of Arctic sea ice. The
ice reflects sunlight back into the atmosphere, rather than being absorbed into
the ocean, preventing warming.
In 2005, he said, there was less than five-million square kilometres of
sea ice covering the ocean. This year, there is 4.3-million square kilometres.
He said some say at the current rate of climate change, the sea could be
ice-free by 2013. If so, the ocean would be left to absorb heat and accelerate
global warming.
The ocean already absorbs carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and when
it warms it is less able to do so, he added.
Another conclusion he came to is in reference to the global food crisis,
in that climate change is causing drought and flooding in many parts of the
world affecting food production.
"Eating is a non-negotiable activity," he said. "We are already on the
edge in the food supply."
He said cuts to the food supply, especially in wheat production, will
inevitably cause social upheaval. Considering the world's population is growing
at such a rapid rate, he said the shortage will only increase. Something, he
said, militaries around the world are paying close attention to.
If the world warms two degrees more, he said many crops will not be able
to sustain their current climates.
An example he gave is the seven-year-long drought in Australia and the
wheat crisis there.
If the crisis continues to grow, he said people in developing countries
will have no choice but to move or take action and raid, causing civil war in
many countries. The same can be said for water, especially since water is
needed in large amounts for irrigation of crops.
"People do not sit around watching their kids starve," he said.
In India, he said, two degrees warmer would cut food production by 25 per
cent, leaving 250 million people without food.
Eventually, the U. S. might resort to building an iron curtain of sorts
to keep refugees from Mexico from crossing the boarder in larger numbers if
there is a water shortage catastrophe.
Because of the large Hispanic population living in the U. S., there is
also a chance of a civil upheaval south of the boarder.
He said Canada is at an advantage because we have the option to sell our
water to the U. S.
"We control this process because we're causing it," he said, adding that
we need to make changes now.
He said what's really needed is an 80 per cent reduction in carbon
emissions by 2030, and even better would be a 50 per cent cut by 2020.
If we let it get to far, he said, he cannot reverse the results. "We
still have time but we don't have a lot," he said.
He said we need to change the way we use energy. There is still a need to
use as much energy, but we need to stop using fossil fuels.
He said it is difficult because it is almost impossible to come to a
consensus politically, because no country wants to pledge reducing emissions
when no one else is as committed. He said the public has to accept and support
a political platform supporting radical emissions cuts.
He also said the burden has to be on the Western world, because we are
better off financially and we created the problem in the first place. For
example, he said the West needs to consider subsidizing clean energy production
in developing countries so they can realistically reduce emissions.
Finally, he said, there is a way to cheat by using geo-engineering. Some
ideas include engineered ways to block out the sun's light. One way is to put
sulfur particles in the stratosphere by enriching jet fuel with sulfur. [Won't
work. AG] The sulfur particles will reflect the light and cool the earth's
surface.
But he said, this is just a temporary solution while we deploy ways to
reverse the affects of climate change.
"We're not talking about a solution here, we're talking about buying
time," he said. "We're not here to save the planet, we're here to save
ourselves."
Copyright © 2008 The Daily Observer
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