Hi Michael, I am chair of the recently formed Arctic Methane Emergency Group and we launched our report in the form of a brochure at the AGU last week [1], as reported in the Independent [2] and New Scientist [3]. The Russians researching the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) are well aware of the river warming effect, particularly around the River Lena area. We have considered various possibilities for reducing the warming effect of the rivers, including river diversion to reduce the flow and ice thickening to reduce the summer warming. But it seems that SRM geoengineering is the most promising for rapid implementation and to cover the whole river catchment area during spring and summer. Cloud removal (to increase outgoing thermal radiation into space) could be used in autumn and winter, if the technology is developed quickly. David Mitchell is looking into this.
If you have any other ideas, let me know! There are signs of increasing marine methane emissions appearing in the atmospheric record at the Barrow and Svalbard monitoring stations. If the Arctic is not cooled quickly, the sea ice will disappear and methane emissions escalate. Cheers, John P.S. On the last page of the brochure, see flip book in [1], you can see sea surface temperature superimposed on geomorphology - and indeed some of the highest temperatures are where rivers flow into the Arctic from Siberia. [1] http://www.arctic-methane-emergency-group.org/#/agu-brochure/4558306797 [2] http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-nissen-it-may-already-be-too-late-to-deal-with-this-terrifying-leak-6276133.html [3] http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn21275-call-for-arctic-geoengineering-as-soon-as-possible.html --- On Sat, Dec 17, 2011 at 12:54 AM, Michael Hayes <voglerl...@gmail.com>wrote: > Hi Folks, > > If you go back to the April and look at the weather in the > Siberian region, you will see that a large warm air mass sat above Siberia > for some time. It appeared to me that this early warming of the land would > generate early warm river waters infusing into the down current hydrate > fields. > > Here is the map (Fig. 4) > http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2011/040511.html > > "Figure 4. Air temperature anomalies for March 2011 show unusually warm > conditions centered over the Chukchi Sea and relatively cool conditions > over Greenland, the Norwegian Sea, and part of Canada." > > Finding ways to influence river water temps during this type of high temp > anomaly is something that may avoid full climate SRM intervention and/or be > something which could augment such an effort. I believed there was a > suggestion back in May to use cryo to cool the rivers as opposed to using > it (cryo liquid) as an air dispersal. Unfortunately, I can not find that > thread at this time. > > From what information I can find, the river outflow areas closest to the > known hydrate fields in the area have the most vulnerable GHSZ. If anyone > is interested in exploring engineering options of this issue, please keep > me in the loop. > > Michael > > > On Thu, Dec 15, 2011 at 5:40 PM, Nathan Currier <natcurr...@gmail.com>wrote: > >> Just checking in Shakhova, she mentions that what she calls >> "flaw polynyas" - the areas of open water in winter - >> have quintupled in the last two decades, and now cover an area = >> to all thermokarst lakes in summer. It's strongly driven by riverine >> flow, >> so, while the map for the article is very simplified, if the >> "hotspots" are >> in fact around the areas of river mouths, then at the least it >> suggests >> that the concentration will need to be not just on keeping summer >> ice but probably on finding techniques of helping these areas of >> winter ice too..... >> >> On Dec 15, 5:48 pm, Nathan Currier <natcurr...@gmail.com> wrote: >> > It's interesting how the methane hotspots in the map >> > accompanying the article seem mostly around river mouths.... >> > could this be utilized in conceptualizing remedies? >> > I remember a Shakova paper talking about the role of riverine flow >> > in terms of breaking up winter ice....but there must be other factors >> > involved, no?.... >> > does the freshening depress some methylotrophs? Or is it all about >> > temperature? >> > >> > Nathan >> > >> > On Dec 12, 8:28 pm, Dan Whaley <dan.wha...@gmail.com> wrote: >> > >> > >> > >> > >http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/shock-as-retr. >> .. >> > >> > > Dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane – a greenhouse gas 20 >> > > times more potent than carbon dioxide – have been seen bubbling to the >> > > surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive >> > > survey of the region. >> > >> > > The scale and volume of the methane release has astonished the head of >> > > the Russian research team who has been surveying the seabed of the >> > > East Siberian Arctic Shelf off northern Russia for nearly 20 years. >> > >> > > In an exclusive interview with The Independent, Igor Semiletov, of the >> > > Far Eastern branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said that he >> > > has never before witnessed the scale and force of the methane being >> > > released from beneath the Arctic seabed. >> > >> > > "Earlier we found torch-like structures like this but they were only >> > > tens of metres in diameter. This is the first time that we've found >> > > continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than >> > > 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing," Dr Semiletov said. "I was >> > > most impressed by the sheer scale and high density of the plumes. Over >> > > a relatively small area we found more than 100, but over a wider area >> > > there should be thousands of them." >> > >> > > Scientists estimate that there are hundreds of millions of tonnes of >> > > methane gas locked away beneath the Arctic permafrost, which extends >> > > from the mainland into the seabed of the relatively shallow sea of the >> > > East Siberian Arctic Shelf. One of the greatest fears is that with the >> > > disappearance of the Arctic sea-ice in summer, and rapidly rising >> > > temperatures across the entire region, which are already melting the >> > > Siberian permafrost, the trapped methane could be suddenly released >> > > into the atmosphere leading to rapid and severe climate change. >> > >> > > Dr Semiletov's team published a study in 2010 estimating that the >> > > methane emissions from this region were about eight million tonnes a >> > > year, but the latest expedition suggests this is a significant >> > > underestimate of the phenomenon. >> > >> > > In late summer, the Russian research vessel Academician Lavrentiev >> > > conducted an extensive survey of about 10,000 square miles of sea off >> > > the East Siberian coast. Scientists deployed four highly sensitive >> > > instruments, both seismic and acoustic, to monitor the "fountains" or >> > > plumes of methane bubbles rising to the sea surface from beneath the >> > > seabed. >> > >> > > "In a very small area, less than 10,000 square miles, we have counted >> > > more than 100 fountains, or torch-like structures, bubbling through >> > > the water column and injected directly into the atmosphere from the >> > > seabed," Dr Semiletov said. "We carried out checks at about 115 >> > > stationary points and discovered methane fields of a fantastic scale – >> > > I think on a scale not seen before. Some plumes were a kilometre or >> > > more wide and the emissions went directly into the atmosphere – the >> > > concentration was a hundred times higher than normal." >> > >> > > Dr Semiletov released his findings for the first time last week at the >> > > American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco >> >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "geoengineering" group. >> To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. >> >> > > > -- > *Michael Hayes* > *360-708-4976* > http://www.voglerlake.com > > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > For more options, visit this group at > http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. 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