It's more likely to be a power law than either linear or exponential, see:- http://www.cup.cam.ac.uk/sg/knowledge/isbn/item6817926/The-Weather-and-Climate:-Emergent-Laws-and-Multifractal-Cascades/?site_locale=en_SG
The abstract is available on the CUP link above, the book itself will be available in May. On 30 January 2013 01:01, David Lewis <jrandomwin...@gmail.com> wrote: > Hansen directly addressed the ideas of Richard Alley and Tad Pfeffer in the > * Appendix* of his 2012 communication "Update of Greenland Ice Sheet Mass > Loss: > Exponential?<http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2012/20121226_GreenlandIceSheetUpdate.pdf>" > which is an excert from Hansen and Sato 2012 "Paleoclimate Implications > for human-made climate > change<http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2011/20110118_MilankovicPaper.pdf>". > > > Commenting on Richard Alley's 2010 AGU Fall Meeting presentation, i.e. "Ice > in the Hot Box - What adaptation challenges might we > face?<http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFM.U52A..02A>", > Hansen writes that all of Alley's chosen projections "approximated as > linear". > > Hansen says "the fundamental issue is linearity versus non-linearity". > Discussing his view of the available data on whether ice sheet melt at the > moment can be said to be non-linear, he concludes: "it's too early to > tell". He adds: "the problem is, by the time the data record is long > enough to be convincing, it may be exceedingly difficult or impossible to > prevent sea level rise of many meters" > > He discusses Pfeffer et.al. 2008 "Kinematic Constraints on Glacier > Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level > Rise<http://courses.washington.edu/ess203/RESOURCES/READING/pfeffer_sealevel_science_2008_with_suppl_info.pdf> > ", > > Hansen states "The kinematic constraint may have relevance to the > Greenland ice sheet, although the assumptions of Pfeffer... are > questionable even for Greenland." > > Hansen notes that BAU emission scenarios "have a positive (warming) > climate forcing that is increasing at a rate *dwarfing any known forcing*", > he does not rule out Greenland, and points to Antarctica. He discusses the > uncertainties and calls for maintaining the high precision observation now > under way. > > In regard to Pfeffer et.al. 2008, what they wrote in their > paper<http://courses.washington.edu/ess203/RESOURCES/READING/pfeffer_sealevel_science_2008_with_suppl_info.pdf>about > their estimates was that they were "roughly constrained scenarios" > and that they were "a most likely starting point for refinements in > sea-level forecasts that include ice flow dynamics". > > > > On Monday, January 28, 2013 2:45:00 AM UTC-8, Oliver Tickell wrote: >> >> http://grist.org/climate-**energy/why-greenlands-melting-** >> could-be-the-biggest-climate-**disaster-of-all/<http://grist.org/climate-energy/why-greenlands-melting-could-be-the-biggest-climate-disaster-of-all/> >> >> -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "geoengineering" group. > To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an > email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. > To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. > Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. > For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out. > > > -- *************************************************** 'ATMOSPHERIC TURBULENCE: A Molecular Dynamics Perspective'. Oxford University Press, 2008. ISBN 978-0-19-923653-4. http://www.oup.com/uk/catalogue/?ci=9780199236534 *************************************************** -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/groups/opt_out.
