I didn't mean to imply that policymakers have a hidden agenda to move towards GE by this route, only that it would be a necessary, clarifying step.
I also think that these adaptation measure are at heart uncontroversial, though very dramatic, and so are well-suited to consensus policy-making. In contrast, SRM is very controversial but does not require the degree of consensus that emissions reductions negotiations have conditioned us to expect. In fact it would not require even a majority, just a coalition of sufficient desperate actors that has grown to include countries with the means to try it. I certainly don't see ANY signs of any such a coalition forming. But that's closer to how SRM would come to pass, not by the familiar policy-making process we see unfolding around adaptation/preparedness. (This should hold whether one is for or against it). By saying that I don't want to make light of governance and transparency (let alone imply a yearning for Strong Leader Who Will Take Matters In Hand), just to note that the rules of this game are as different from the rules of the emissions-reduction "game" as that in turn was different from the CFC-reduction "game" that preceded it. On Saturday, June 15, 2013 9:42:02 PM UTC-6, Greg Rau wrote: > > Guess it's official: Plan A (= emissions reductions) has failed. So we're > jumping directly to Plan C ( = survival mode). Apparently the messaging > about Plan B (= SRM and CDR) never got through, or someone's decided we're > not going there(?) Best of luck to future generations. Some of us tried to > change the outcome. So crank on that XL pipeline. Frack the heck out of > those Bakken, Barnett, Montney, Haynesville, Marcellus, Eagle Ford, > Niobrara and Utica shales. And if gas supplants "king" coal in the US, then > let's just ship the excess to China. Let's hear it for Plan C, and let's > party while we still can(?) > Greg > > > http://news.yahoo.com/climate-talk-shifts-curbing-co2-adapting-130423769.html > > "Now officials are merging efforts by emergency managers to prepare for > natural disasters with those of officials focused on climate change. That > greatly lessens the political debate about human-caused global warming, > said University of Colorado science and disaster policy professor Roger > Pielke Jr. > It also makes the issue more local than national or international. > "If you keep the discussion focused on impacts ... I think it's pretty > easy to get people from all political persuasions," said Pielke, who often > has clashed with environmentalists over global warming. "It's insurance. > The good news is that we know insurance is going to pay off again." > Describing these measures as resiliency and changing the way people talk > about it make it more palatable than calling it climate change, said Hadi > Dowlatabadi, a University of British Columbia climate scientist. > "It's called a no-regrets strategy," Dowlatabadi said. "It's all branding." > All that, experts say, is essentially taking some of the heat out of the > global warming debate." > > *Climate talk shifts from curbing CO2 to adapting* > By SETH BORENSTEIN | Associated Press – 8 hrs ago > WASHINGTON (AP) — Efforts to curb global warming have quietly shifted as > greenhouse gases inexorably rise. > The conversation is no longer solely about how to save the planet by > cutting carbon emissions. It's becoming more about how to save ourselves > from the warming planet's wild weather. > It was Mayor Michael Bloomberg's announcement last week of an ambitious > plan to stave off New York City's rising seas with > flood gates, levees and more that brought this transition into full focus. > After years of losing the fight against rising global emissions of > heat-trapping gases, governments around the world are emphasizing what a > U.N. Foundation scientific report calls "managing the unavoidable." > It's called adaptation and it's about as sexy but as necessary as > insurance, experts say. It's also a message that once was taboo among > climate activists such as former Vice President Al Gore. > In his 1992 book "Earth in the Balance," Gore compared talk of adapting to > climate > change to laziness that would distract > from necessary efforts. > But in his 2013 book "The Future," Gore writes bluntly: "I was wrong." He > talks about how coping with rising seas and temperatures is just as > important as trying to prevent global warming by cutting emissions. > Like Gore, governmental officials across the globe aren't saying everyone > should just give up on efforts to reduce pollution. They're saying that as > they work on curbing carbon, they also have to deal with a reality that's > already here. > In March, President Barack Obama's science advisers sent him a list of > recommendations on climate change. No. 1 on the list: > "Focus on national preparedness for climate change." "Whether you believe > climate change is real or not is beside the point," New York's Bloomberg > said in announcing his $20 > billion adaptation plans. "The bottom line is: We can't run the risk." > On Monday, more than three dozen other municipal officials from across the > country will go public with a nationwide effort to make their cities more > resilient to natural disasters and the effects of man-made global warming. > "It's an insurance policy, which is investing in the future," Mayor Kevin > Johnson of Sacramento, Calif., who is chairing the mayors' efforts, said in > an interview Friday. "This is public safety. It's the long-term hazards > that could impact a community." > Discussions about global warming are happening more often in mayors' > offices than in Congress. The Obama administration and local governments > are coming up with thousands of eye-glazing pages of climate change > adaptation > plans and talking > about zoning, elevation, water system infrastructure, and most of all, > risk. > "They can sit up there and not make any policies or changes, but we know > we have to," Broward County, Fla., Mayor Kristin Jacobs said. "We know that > we're going to be that first line of defense." > University of Michigan professor Rosina Bierbaum is a presidential science > adviser who headed the adaptation section of the administration's new > National Climate Assessment. "It's quite striking how much is going on at > the municipal level," > > Bierbaum said. "Communities have to operate in real time. Everybody is > struggling with a climate that is no longer the climate of the past." > Still, Bierbaum said, "Many of the other developed countries have gone way > ahead of us in preparing for climate change. In many ways, the U.S. may be > playing catch-up." > Hurricanes, smaller storms and floods have been a harsh teacher for South > Florida, said Jacobs. > "Each time you get walloped, you stop and scratch your head ... and learn > from it and make change," she said. "It helps if you've been walloped once > or twice. I think it's easier to take action when everybody sees" the > effect of climate change and are willing to talk about being prepared. > What Bloomberg announced for New York is reasonable for a wealthy city > with lots of people and lots of expensive property and infrastructure to > protect, said S. Jeffress Williams, a University of Hawaii geophysicist who > used to be the expert on sea level rise for the U.S. Geological Survey. But > for other coasts in the United States and especially elsewhere in the > poorer world, he said, "it's not so easy to adapt." > Rich nations have pledged, but not yet provided, $100 billion a year to > help poor nations adapt to global warming and cut their emissions. But the > $20 billion cost for New York City's efforts shows the money won't go far > in helping poorer cities adapt, said Brandon Wu of the nonprofit ActionAid. > At U.N. climate talks in Germany this past week, Ronald Jumeau, a delegate > from the Seychelles, said developing countries have noted the more than $50 > billion in relief that U.S. states in the Northeast got for Superstorm > Sandy. > That's a large amount "for one storm in three states. At the same time, > the Philippines was hit by its 15th storm in the same year," Jumeau said. > "It puts things in context." > For poorer cities in the U.S., what makes sense is to buy out property > owners, relocate homes and businesses and convert vulnerable sea shores to > parks so that when storms hit "it's not a big deal," Williams said. "I > think we'll see more and more communities make that decision largely > because of the cost involved in trying to adapt to what's coming." > Jacobs, the mayor from South Florida, says that either people will move > "or they will rehab their homes so that they can have a higher elevation. > Already, in the Keys, you see houses that are up on stilts. So is that > where we're going? At some point, we're going to have to start looking at > real changes." > It's not just rising seas. > Sacramento has to deal with devastating droughts as well as the threat of > flooding. It has a levee system so delicate that only New Orleans has it > worse, said Johnson, the California capital's mayor. > The temperature in Sacramento was 110 this past week. After previous heat > waves, cities such as Chicago, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., have come > up with cooling centers and green roofs that reduce the urban heat island > affect. > Jacobs said cities from Miami to Virginia Beach, Va., are coping with > mundane efforts: changes in zoning and building codes, raising the > elevation of roads and runways, moving and hardening infrastructure. None > of it grabs headlines, but "the sexiness is ... in the results," she said. > For decades, scientists referenced average temperatures when they talked > about global warming. Only recently have they > focused intensely on extreme and costly weather, encouraged by the > insurance industry which has suffered high losses, Bierbaum said. > > In 2012, weather disasters — not necessarily all tied to climate change — > caused $110 billion in damage to the United States, which was the second > highest total since 1980, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric > Administration said last week. > Now officials are merging efforts by emergency managers to prepare for > natural disasters with those of officials focused on climate change. That > greatly lessens the political debate about human-caused global warming, > said University of Colorado science and disaster policy professor Roger > Pielke Jr. > It also makes the issue more local than national or international. > "If you keep the discussion focused on impacts ... I think it's pretty > easy to get people from all political persuasions," said Pielke, who often > has clashed with environmentalists over global warming. "It's insurance. > The good news is that we know insurance is going to pay off again." > Describing these measures as resiliency and changing the way people talk > about it make it more palatable than calling it climate change, said Hadi > Dowlatabadi, a University of British Columbia climate scientist. > "It's called a no-regrets strategy," Dowlatabadi said. "It's all branding." > All that, experts say, is essentially taking some of the heat out of the > global warming debate. > ___ > Associated Press writers Karl A. Ritter in Bonn, Germany, Jennifer Peltz > in New York and Tony Winton in Miami contributed to this report. > ___ Online: Federal government's National Climate Assessment chapter on > adaptation: http://1.usa.gov/154qUGs The national mayors' efforts to > promote adaptation: http://www.resilientamerica.org Georgetown > University's Climate Center primer on adaptation: > http://www.georgetownclimate.org/adaptation ___ Seth Borenstein can be > followed at http://twitter.com/borenbears First of a two-part package on > adapting to climate change. Tomorrow: Snapshots of what cities are doing > around the world. > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering. 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