https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2752-5295/ade619/meta

*Authors*
Temitope Samuel Egbebiyi, Vincent Ajayi, Ayomide Arowolo, Jeremiah Ogunniyi
and Samuel Ogunjo

*19 June 2025*

*Abstract*
Africa's agriculture, largely rain-dependent, is exceptionally vulnerable
to the impacts of climate change, with projected shifts in temperature and
precipitation patterns posing significant challenges for crop production,
water availability, and food security. This study investigates the
potential of two Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) approaches,
Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (Gsulfur) and Solar Dimming (Gsolar) in
modifying precipitation dynamics and agro-climatic indices across the
African continent under future climate scenarios. Utilizing datasets from
the CMIP6 and GeoMIP6, we analyse alterations in key agro-climatic indices
under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results showed that while both
Gsolar and Gsulfur demonstrate the capacity to attenuate temperature
increases associated with global warming, their influence on precipitation
is heterogeneous, with significant potential for both beneficial and
adverse impacts. SAI may enhance rainfall in Sahara (SAH) and North Africa
(NAF) while it reduces rainfall in the Central Africa (CAF) and Central
East Africa (CEAF) region, thereby introducing potential risks for
agricultural productivity and water availability. SAI and SD contribute to
the higher frequency of wet days under the two emission scenarios but are
likely to reduce total annual rainfall and heavy rainfall which can
complicate water resources. This study further examines how growing season
length (GSL) in Africa changes under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The
impact of G6sulfur (Gsolar) interventions relative to SSP2-4.5 may leads to
a GSL decrease about 5-15 (1-16) days over the region while an increase of
similar magnitude is expected over Madagascar, MDG (CEAF). With higher
emission, the impact of G6solar intervention relative to SSP5-8.5 may lead
to an increase of about 5 -15 days over the region except but a decrease
over MDG, Southeast Africa (SEAF) and CEAF. The projected trends in
agroclimatic indices were found to be similar under GHG and geoengineering
at CAF, CEAF, and SWAF during growing season period. In these regions, CDD
declined between 2070 and 2099 while CWD and PRCPTOT increased. This has
implications for the economies based on agricultural production in Africa.
Our study has helped improve our understanding of how global warming and
SRM approaches can impact agricultural production in Africa and inform
policymakers about the trade-offs between SAI and other GHG adaptation
strategies.

*Source: IOP Science*

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