On 8/11/07, [EMAIL PROTECTED] <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> Climate sensitivity isn't constrained primarily by the 20th century
> temperature/forcing record,
It is so constrained just a little bit though. With than minor caveat
I agree with your analysis. The record would have to be very
dramatically wrong to change the expectation very much.
> and most of the uncertainty for the
> forcing is from aerosols. As long as the latter decline in relative
> importance, the temperature prediction for doubled CO2 (and zero
> aerosols) would be 3C no matter whether temperature has risen 0.3 or
> 1.2C to date?
Doubled CO2 equivalent, including other greenhouse gases... Otherwise,
that is the picture we now have, yes. You have stated it succinctly
and well, I think.
mt
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