Dear Santanu, Thanks a lot.
Any volunteer to translate the complete doc.? Sukla On 21/01/2010, santanu chacraverti <s.chacrave...@gmail.com> wrote: > The actual study in its entirety is to be found at > http://www.prognos.com/fileadmin/pdf/publikationsdatenbank/Prognos_Studie_Renaissance_der_Kernenergie.pdf > > Unfortunately it is in German and therefore incomprehensible, for many of > us. Therefore it is difficult for us to make out the tools, methods and > extrapolations employed by the study, which makes it almost impossible to > really make out how far the study's projections are realistic. What is > important is that this study, in its conculsion (to be found in the > abstract, given in English), apparently agrees with what other experts have > already indicated. > > Santanu > > 2010/1/21 sreenivas v.p <sreenivas_...@yahoo.co.in> > >> >> >> It seems that this study is merely based on some data gathered from past >> and present trends . For example, solar energy production have been >> improved >> in recent years but not >> very significantly as we predicted . making predictions solely on >> technological possibility >> also is error prone . There are environmental challenges which may have >> influence on the future of nuclear energy but there are many other factors >> which will have an effect on the use of nuclear energy and reactors . The >> fact that nuclear energy has tremendous potential for power production in >> huge quantity can make nations think in this regard . For example, Iran is >> pursuing nuclear energy because it lacks other sources of energy and >> resources which can support enregy requirements of a large population . >> As nations are forced to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, they may think >> of >> increasing their nuclear reactors . >> For example France closed many of its coal mine factories by deploying >> nuclear power at large scale . >> >> --- On *Wed, 20/1/10, Sukla Sen <sukla....@gmail.com>* wrote: >> >> >> From: Sukla Sen <sukla....@gmail.com> >> Subject: [GreenYouth] Nuclear power losing in importance world-wide >> To: "ecological-democracy" <ecological-democr...@lists.riseup.net>, >> "nonuclear" <nonucl...@lists.movingrepublic.org>, "greenyouth" < >> greenyouth@googlegroups.com> >> Date: Wednesday, 20 January, 2010, 1:30 PM >> >> >> http://www.wieninternational.at/en/node/16702 >> >> <http://www.wieninternational.at/en/node/16702> >> The latest “Prognos” survey predicts a global decline of nuclear energy >> Nuclear power losing in importance world-wide >> *The world-wide renaissance of nuclear power that has so often been >> predicted will not take place in the next few decades. Nuclear energy will >> be on the decline till the year 2030, and will continue to decline in >> importance globally. * >> >> This is the conclusion of the Swiss “Prognos” institute based in Basel. >> Germany’s Federal Agency for Radiation Protection in Salzgitter / Lower >> Saxony commissioned “Prognos” to carry out a survey on “the renaissance of >> nuclear energy”. The task was to provide a realistic estimate of the >> future >> development of nuclear energy world-wide till the year 2030. The most >> important results are reproduced below: >> >> No renaissance - nuclear power in decline * The study does not anticipate >> a renaissance in the use of nuclear energy by the year 2030. On the >> contrary, shutdowns of aged plants will lead to a decrease in the total >> number of reactors, and there will be a significant decline in installed >> capacity and electricity generation from nuclear power plants. >> >> * Compared to the reference level of March 2009, the number of nuclear >> power stations in operation worldwide is likely to decrease by 22% by the >> year 2020, and by about 29% by the year 2030. >> >> * Despite an increase in construction activity of nuclear power >> stations compared to construction in the last 10 years, the level of the >> building boom of the 1970s/80s will not be reached again. >> >> >> >> [image: number of nuclear power plants under construction worldwide, >> Popup]<http://www.wieninternational.at/en/node/files/16-17/16702/12-block02_hires0.jpg?SESS88d3916a5a538ac67daaf1cded7e82f4=99b1c398460180a392e2d6f359c723d7> >> [image: Nuclear power plants in Europe, >> Popup]<http://www.wieninternational.at/en/node/files/16-17/16702/12-block02_hires1.jpg?SESS88d3916a5a538ac67daaf1cded7e82f4=99b1c398460180a392e2d6f359c723d7> >> “Prognos” expects the number of new nuclear power plants to decline by 29 >> per cent by the year 2030 (left); an overview of nuclear reactors in >> Europe >> >> >> Almost 30% fewer nuclear power stations by 2030 * Although the number >> of announcements of new nuclear power stations is on the increase, in the >> past the ambitious expansion plans – particularly in the USA, but also in >> other countries – have subsequently not materialized. The study >> anticipates >> that about 23% of all the projects announced by ATW, the German >> ”International Journal for Nuclear Power” for the period until 2020 will >> be >> realized, whilst about 35% of the projects announced by the World Nuclear >> Association (WNA) for the period until 2030 will be realized. >> >> * The forecast will be impacted particularly by the assumptions made >> with respect to the remaining lifetime of existing nuclear power stations >> and the extent to which the announcements made by China, Russia, the USA, >> India and Japan are implemented. >> >> * If all the projects announced were to be realized, this would mean >> an >> increase in construction activity that would overshadow the rapid increase >> in construction activity at the beginning of the 1970s. This seems >> extremely >> unlikely at the present time. >> >> >> [image: existing nuclear power plants worldwide, >> Popup]<http://www.wieninternational.at/en/node/files/16-17/16702/13-block03_hires0.jpg?SESS88d3916a5a538ac67daaf1cded7e82f4=99b1c398460180a392e2d6f359c723d7> >> Western Europe and the USA have the highest number of nuclear power >> plants worldwide >> >> >> Nuclear energy in decline * Even by comparison to the forecast rapid >> growth in world-wide electricity consumption, nuclear energy will decline >> significantly in importance by the year 2030. The percentage of world-wide >> electricity generation accounted for by nuclear energy will decline from >> 14.8% in the year 2006 to an estimated 9.1% in the year 2020, and to 7.1% >> in >> the year 2030. >> >> * Other scenarios – such as the “low” scenario of the OECD/Nuclear >> Energy Agency and the reference scenario of the World Energy Outlook 2008 >> by >> the International Energy Agency – also indicate that nuclear energy will >> have a declining share of world-wide electricity generation. The >> development >> of output forecast in this study is most closely aligned with the results >> of >> the current “phase out life extension” scenario of the OECD-NEA. >> >> The background: there are currently 436 nuclear power stations in >> operation, whose average age is already 24 years. The number of reactors >> has >> been declining since the year 2002, when there were still 444 reactors >> connected to the grid. However, many construction projects are now getting >> bogged down, and work on several of them has been stopped for years. In >> actual fact, there are only 37 new nuclear reactors currently under >> construction. This will not be enough to compensate for the decline >> world-wide. >> >> >> [image: comparison of nuclear power plants construction 2020 - 2030 >> popup]<http://www.wieninternational.at/en/node/files/16-17/16702/14-block03_hires0.jpeg?SESS88d3916a5a538ac67daaf1cded7e82f4=99b1c398460180a392e2d6f359c723d7> >> The forecast of the Swiss researchers is close to the lowest prognoses of >> OECD experts that also indicate that nuclear energy is going to play a >> lesser role on a global level >> >> >> 436 nuclear reactors world-wideThe media have reacted with glee to the >> completely contrary results arrived at by the "Prognos" researchers >> compared >> to the construction boom predicted for nuclear power stations that has >> never >> actually come to pass. “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, for instance, gloated: “The >> mythical renaissance of nuclear power.” Everything has been prepared for >> the >> big comeback of nuclear power that will never even take place! >> >> There are plans as far as the eye can see. Poland is looking for a site >> for >> a new nuclear power station, possibly not far from the German border. >> Switzerland is intending to build new reactors. The United Kingdom has >> invited investors. Italy has overturned its exit from nuclear power, as >> has >> Sweden. A new reactor is under construction in Finland, and in France too. >> Everything seems to have been prepared for the big renaissance of nuclear >> power. But only in theory. In reality, the role played by reactors will >> decline over the next few years. Many nuclear projects world-wide are >> already at a standstill. In view of the growing financing problems and >> political instability, only a third of the planned new projects will be >> realized world-wide. At best. And wherever construction is under way, >> there >> are also problems, the “Süddeutsche” continues. Many projects that were >> thought to be dead certs are about to be cancelled. >> >> >> Contact: >> Prognos AG, Basel >> Henric Petri Strasse 9 >> CH-4010 Basel >> Telephone: +41 61 3273-200 >> Telefax: +41 61 3273-300 >> i...@prognos.com<http://in.mc84.mail.yahoo.com/mc/compose?to=i...@prognos.com> >> >> -- >> Peace Is Doable >> -- >> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups >> "Green Youth Movement" group. >> To post to this group, send an email to greenyo...@googlegroups.com. >> To unsubscribe from this group, send email to >> greenyouth+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com<greenyouth%2bunsubscr...@googlegroups.com> >> . >> For more options, visit this group at >> http://groups.google.com/group/greenyouth?hl=en-GB. >> >> >> ------------------------------ >> The INTERNET now has a personality. YOURS! See your Yahoo! >> Homepage<http://in.rd.yahoo.com/tagline_yyi_1/*http://in.yahoo.com/> >> . >> >> _______________________________________________ >> nonuclear mailing list >> nonucl...@lists.movingrepublic.org >> http://lists.movingrepublic.org/listinfo.cgi/nonuclear-movingrepublic.org >> >> > -- Peace Is Doable
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